Accounting for Breaks in Agriculture: A Study of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa

Is the performance of the agricultural sector in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa smooth and continuous or any structural breaks are there? A shift in the growth regime would imply that at least one of the growth inducing factors (area, yield and cropping pattern) should also witness a regime change. The present paper attempts to identify the break points in the growth profile of the two states and also aims at accounting for the breaks in the performance of agricultural sector. Both the economies had two structural breaks in their performance during the post 1960’s period. Andhra Pradesh witnessed acceleration in growth of its agrarian economy over the phases while Orissa faced deceleration over the three phases. In Orissa, turning points in the Index number of area is an important factor for explaining turning points in agrarian performance. In case of Andhra Pradesh, the turning points in index number of yield and crop diversification play an important role in explaining turning points in overall growth performance and index number of land has limited role in explaining the turning points in the growth performance. Orissa’s agrarian economy continues to be in the ‘extensive’ phase with the importance of land under cultivation while Andhra Pradesh witnessed a shift to the phase of intensive cultivation with an increased dependence on yield.