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Does Conditional Aid Promote Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of GAVI Alliance on Immunisation in Developing Countries
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The GAVI Alliance (Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation) is an aid programme that supplies large quantities of free and highly subsidised vaccines to developing countries on an income eligibility criterion since 2001 to improve the vaccination coverage rates. This paper estimates the impact of six different GAVI funded vaccines (DPT, Hep B, Hib, Rota, Pneumo and Measles) on the immunisation rates in developing countries using parametric and non-parametric econometric methods for the years 2005 and 2013. The regression discontinuity design estimates for the older and cheaper vaccines show a statistically significant impact on vaccination rates in 2005, whereas by 2013, the coverage rates of these vaccines show no significant impact. For the newer and more expensive vaccines, the empirical results show significant impact estimates in 2013. The GAVI Alliance aid programme has consciously increased the immunisation rates among children in almost all the developing countries.
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