Current Science

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Metapopulation Modelling of Threatened Plants to Assess Conservation Status and Determine Minimum Viable Population Size


Affiliations
1 Centre for Advanced Studies in Botany, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong 793 022, India
2 Department of Botany, University of Sikkim, Gangtok 737 102, India
 

Use of metapopulation modelling in conservation of threatened plants has been demonstrated in this article taking Paris polyphylla Smith as an example. The metapopulation data collected from Sikkim Himalaya over a period of four years were analysed using RAMAS Metapop 5.0 software. Demographic projection, assessment of extinction probability, population viability analysis, and analysis of impact of disturbance on the metapopulation were undertaken. The metapopulation had 11 populations of which seven were in continuous forest (CF) and four were in forest fragments (FF). All the analyses were done in two model scenarios, viz. base-model (M1) representing the disturbed condition, and alternate model (M2) representing the undisturbed condition for three distinct layers of P. polyphylla populations, i.e. CF, FF in isolation, and collectively as metapopulation. The outputs of the deterministic population models in respect of CF and FF populations revealed that both the populations had contribution of growth and survival of plants to such decline was greater than the fecundity in both the models. Stochastic simulations revealed an extinction risk of >10% in 100 years in M1 scenario, which put the species under vulnerable category. The extinction risk of metapopulation significantly varied between the two models (M1 = 0.85; M2 = 0.42), conforming the hypothesis that disturbance and forest fragmentation have detrimental effect on the persistence of P. polyphylla. Recovery of species was most promising when reproductive individuals were introduced to the M2 model. Thus, both introduction of individuals in the field and protection of the populations with emphasis on the reproductive subset would result in achieving minimum viable population size or low threat status of the species.

Keywords

Demography, Extinction Risk, Metapopulation, Minimum Viable Population.
User
Notifications
Font Size

  • Brook, B., Lim, L., Harden, R. and Frankham, R., Does population viability analysis software predict the behaviour of real populations? A retrospective study on the Lord Howe Island Woodhen Tricolimnassylvestris (Sclater). Biol. Conserv., 1997, 82, 119–128.

  • Brook, B. W., O’Grady, J. J., Chapman, A. P., Burgman, M. A., Akcakaya, H. R. and Frankham, R., Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature, 2000, 404, 385–387.

  • Horvitz, C. C. and Schemske, D. W., Spatiotemporal variation in demographic transitions for a tropical understory herb: projection matrix analysis. Ecol. Monogr., 1995, 65, 155–192.

  • Caswell, H., Matrix Population Models, Sinauer, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA, 2001, 2nd edn.

  • Schemske, D. W., Husband, B. C., Ruckelshaus, M. H., Goodwillie, C., Parker I. M. and Bishop, J. G., Evaluating approaches to the conservation of rare and endangered plants. Ecology, 1994, 75, 584–606.

  • Menges, E. S., Population viability analyses in plants: challenges and opportunities. Trends Ecol. Evol., 2000, 15, 51–56.

  • Shaffer, M. L., Minimum viable populations: coping with uncertainty. In Viable Populations for Conservation (ed. Soule, M. E.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1987, pp. 69–86.

  • Shaffer, M. L., Minimum population sizes for species conservation. Bioscience, 1981, 31, 131–134.

  • Menges, E. S., Stochastic modelling of extinction in plant populations. In Conservation Biology: The Theory and Practice of Nature Conservation, Preservation, and Management (eds Fiedler, P. L. and Jain, S. K.), Chapman and Hall, New York, USA, 1992, pp. 253–275.

  • Traill, L. W., Bradshaw, C. J. and Brook, B. W., Minimum viable population size: a meta-analysis of 30 years of published estimates. Biol. Conserv., 2007, 139(1), 159–166.

  • UNESCO, World Heritage Convention; http://www.whc.unesco.org/en/list/1513 (accessed on 1 September 2016).

  • Morris, W. F. and Doak, D. F., Quantitative Conservation Biology: Theory and Practice of Population Viability Analysis, Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA, 2002.

  • Morris, W. F. and Doak, D. F., How general are the determinants of the stochastic population growth rate across nearby sites? Ecol. Monogr., 2005, 75, 119–137.

  • Akcakaya, H. R., RAMAS/GIS: linking landscape data with population viability analysis (version 3.0). Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York, 1998.

  • Akcakaya, H. R. and Root, W. T., RAMAS Landscape: Integrating Metapopulation Viability with Landis Forest Dynamics Model, Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York, 2003.

  • Regan, T. J., Evaluating Methods for Estimating Extinction Risk, Ph D thesis, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia, 2004.

  • Akcakaya, H. R., A method for simulating demographic stochasticity. Ecol. Model, 1991, 54, 133–136.

  • Akcakaya, H. R., RAMAS/GIS: linking spatial data with population viability analysis (version 4.0). Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York, 2002.

  • Brook, B. W., Akcakaya, H. R., Keith, D. A., Mace, G. M., Pearson, R. G. and Araujo, M. B., Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change. Biol. Lett., 2009, 5, 723–725.

  • Watts, M. J., Fordham, D. A., Akcakaya, H. R., Aiello-Lammens, M. E. and Brook, B. W., Tracking shifting range margins using geographical centroids of metapopulations weighted by population density. Ecol. Model., 2013, 269, 61–69.

  • Nantel, P., Gagnon, D. and Nault, A., Population viability analysis of American ginseng and wild leek harvested in stochastic environments. Conserv. Biol., 1996, 10, 608–621.

  • Gibson, D. J., Methods in Comparative Plant Population Ecology, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2002.

  • Bossuyt, B. and Honnay, O., Interactions between plant life span, seed dispersal capacity and fecundity determine metapopulation viability in a dynamic landscape. Landsc. Ecol., 2006, 21, 1195–1205.

  • Yates, C. J. and Ladd P. G., Using population viability analysis to predict the effect of fire on the extinction risk of an endangered shrub Verticordia fimbrilepis subsp. fimbrilepis in a fragmented landscape. Plant Ecol., 2010, 211(2), 305–319.

  • Shoemaker, K. T., Breisch, A. R., Jaycox, J. W. and Gibbs J. P., Reexamining the minimum viable population concept for longlived species. Conserv. Biol., 2012, 27(3), 542–551.

  • Minin, E. D. and Griffiths, R. A., Viability analysis of a threatened amphibian population: modeling the past, present and future. Ecography, 2011, 34, 162–169.

  • Bos, D. and Ydenberg, R., Evaluation of alternative management strategies of muskrat Ondatra zibethicus population control using a population model. Wildl. Biol., 2011, 17, 143–155.


Abstract Views: 391

PDF Views: 125




  • Metapopulation Modelling of Threatened Plants to Assess Conservation Status and Determine Minimum Viable Population Size

Abstract Views: 391  |  PDF Views: 125

Authors

Mark K. Lyngdoh
Centre for Advanced Studies in Botany, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong 793 022, India
Arun Chettri
Department of Botany, University of Sikkim, Gangtok 737 102, India
D. Adhikari
Centre for Advanced Studies in Botany, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong 793 022, India
S. K. Barik
Centre for Advanced Studies in Botany, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong 793 022, India

Abstract


Use of metapopulation modelling in conservation of threatened plants has been demonstrated in this article taking Paris polyphylla Smith as an example. The metapopulation data collected from Sikkim Himalaya over a period of four years were analysed using RAMAS Metapop 5.0 software. Demographic projection, assessment of extinction probability, population viability analysis, and analysis of impact of disturbance on the metapopulation were undertaken. The metapopulation had 11 populations of which seven were in continuous forest (CF) and four were in forest fragments (FF). All the analyses were done in two model scenarios, viz. base-model (M1) representing the disturbed condition, and alternate model (M2) representing the undisturbed condition for three distinct layers of P. polyphylla populations, i.e. CF, FF in isolation, and collectively as metapopulation. The outputs of the deterministic population models in respect of CF and FF populations revealed that both the populations had contribution of growth and survival of plants to such decline was greater than the fecundity in both the models. Stochastic simulations revealed an extinction risk of >10% in 100 years in M1 scenario, which put the species under vulnerable category. The extinction risk of metapopulation significantly varied between the two models (M1 = 0.85; M2 = 0.42), conforming the hypothesis that disturbance and forest fragmentation have detrimental effect on the persistence of P. polyphylla. Recovery of species was most promising when reproductive individuals were introduced to the M2 model. Thus, both introduction of individuals in the field and protection of the populations with emphasis on the reproductive subset would result in achieving minimum viable population size or low threat status of the species.

Keywords


Demography, Extinction Risk, Metapopulation, Minimum Viable Population.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv114%2Fi03%2F532-538