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Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan


Affiliations
1 Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
2 Department of Information and Communication Technologies, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
 

This study was conducted to examine the changes in future temperature and precipitation of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan by using the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios. Future climate data for temperature and precipitation obtained from climate models were bias corrected using the delta change approach. Maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were projected for three future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s against the baseline period of 1961–1980. The mean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.8°C, 3.5°C and 4.8°C by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively. The mean annual precipitation is projected to increase whereas monthly precipitation is expected to increase and decrease according to the months for the whole river basin, under both scenarios, by 2100.

Keywords

Climate Change, Kabul River Basin, RCPs, Temperature, Precipitation.
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  • Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

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Authors

Massouda Sidiqi
Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Sangam Shrestha
Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Sarawut Ninsawat
Department of Information and Communication Technologies, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand

Abstract


This study was conducted to examine the changes in future temperature and precipitation of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan by using the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios. Future climate data for temperature and precipitation obtained from climate models were bias corrected using the delta change approach. Maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were projected for three future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s against the baseline period of 1961–1980. The mean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.8°C, 3.5°C and 4.8°C by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively. The mean annual precipitation is projected to increase whereas monthly precipitation is expected to increase and decrease according to the months for the whole river basin, under both scenarios, by 2100.

Keywords


Climate Change, Kabul River Basin, RCPs, Temperature, Precipitation.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv114%2Fi06%2F1304-1310