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The H1N1 Factor and Inverse Correlation Between Death Rates Due to COVID-19 and Influenza-Pneumonia


Affiliations
1 42 Vrindavan Gardens B, Thiruvananthapuram 695 004, India
2 A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technological University, Thiruvananthapuram 695 016, India
 

In an earlier study, we had observed an inverse correlation between death rates due to COVID-19 and influenza, suggesting cross-immunity. We examine virus surveillance data further to identify the key subtype of influenza virus that seems to give such cross-immunity. This is identified as the H1N1 strain and we show that a country where this strain was recently dominant has much lower COVID-19 mortality rates. It is possible to argue that many countries which already have a high burden of influenza and pneumonia- related deaths, may have a substantial fraction of the population immune to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and hence experience lower mortality rates at the peak typical of exponentially growing epidemics. This has implication on policies appropriate for managing the epidemic.

Keywords

COVID-19, Death Rates, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Pneumonia.
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  • The H1N1 Factor and Inverse Correlation Between Death Rates Due to COVID-19 and Influenza-Pneumonia

Abstract Views: 382  |  PDF Views: 133

Authors

Ajit Haridas
42 Vrindavan Gardens B, Thiruvananthapuram 695 004, India
Gangan Prathap
A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technological University, Thiruvananthapuram 695 016, India

Abstract


In an earlier study, we had observed an inverse correlation between death rates due to COVID-19 and influenza, suggesting cross-immunity. We examine virus surveillance data further to identify the key subtype of influenza virus that seems to give such cross-immunity. This is identified as the H1N1 strain and we show that a country where this strain was recently dominant has much lower COVID-19 mortality rates. It is possible to argue that many countries which already have a high burden of influenza and pneumonia- related deaths, may have a substantial fraction of the population immune to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and hence experience lower mortality rates at the peak typical of exponentially growing epidemics. This has implication on policies appropriate for managing the epidemic.

Keywords


COVID-19, Death Rates, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Pneumonia.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv119%2Fi3%2F535-539