A Location-Specific Nowcast and SMS-Based Dissemination System for Thunderstorm and Lightning Warning over Jharkhand, India

Effective nowcasting for thunderstorms has been a challenge to operational forecasters in Jharkhand, India as lightning strikes-related deaths are significantly high. Extrapolation of radar echoes is the very foundation of nowcasting. Multiple radar mosaic data are able to pick out the size, shape, intensity, speed and direction of movement of individual storms on a continuous basis. This makes it possible to determine the likely location of a moving storm by extrapolation. This article demonstrates a new approach of locationspecific nowcast and SMS (short message service)- based dissemination system for thunderstorm and lightning warning up to 3 h ahead over Jharkhand. There are three components of the system. First, identification of the initial development and tracking of thunder cells by mosaic composite reflectivity data from multiple radars. The future location of thunder cells, and their growth or dissipation in terms of radius is estimated by extrapolation using their past trends. Secondly, based on this forecast information, an SMS is generated by the web-based GIS portal of Jharkhand Space Applications Centre for the forecast location and sent to the concerned state officials and mobile service providers over that region. Finally, the warning SMS is sent to all the active mobile users over that region at that time. The system combining nowcasting and dissemination of warning directly to the likely affected people is expected to be more robust considering its effectiveness in the reduction of human casualty.