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Using High Effective Risk of Adult–Senior Duo in Multigenerational Homes to Prioritize COVID-19 Vaccination


Affiliations
1 Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
 

Universal vaccination on an urgent basis is a way of controlling COVID-19 infections and deaths. Vaccine shortage and practical deployment rates on the field necessitate prioritization. The global strategy has been to prioritize those with high personal risk due to their age or comorbidities, and those who constitute the essential workforce of the society. Rather than a systematic age-based roll-down, assigning the next priority requires a local strategy based on vaccine availability, effectiveness of the specific vaccines, population size as well as its age demographics and the scenario of how the pandemic is likely to develop. The adult (20–60 yrs) – senior (over 60 yrs) duo from a multigenerational home presents a high-risk demographic. The estimated ‘effective age’ of an adult living with a grandparent who is not vaccinated may be up to 40 years higher. The proposed model suggests that strategically vaccinating the adults from multigenerational homes in India may be effective in saving the lives of around 70,000 to 200,000 seniors, under the different epidemiological scenarios possible with or without strict lockdowns.

Keywords

COVID-19, High Risk Groups, Intergenerational Homes, Population Demographics, Vaccination Strategy.
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  • Using High Effective Risk of Adult–Senior Duo in Multigenerational Homes to Prioritize COVID-19 Vaccination

Abstract Views: 313  |  PDF Views: 131

Authors

Brijesh Saraswat
Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
Santosh Ansumali
Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
Meher K. Prakash
Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India

Abstract


Universal vaccination on an urgent basis is a way of controlling COVID-19 infections and deaths. Vaccine shortage and practical deployment rates on the field necessitate prioritization. The global strategy has been to prioritize those with high personal risk due to their age or comorbidities, and those who constitute the essential workforce of the society. Rather than a systematic age-based roll-down, assigning the next priority requires a local strategy based on vaccine availability, effectiveness of the specific vaccines, population size as well as its age demographics and the scenario of how the pandemic is likely to develop. The adult (20–60 yrs) – senior (over 60 yrs) duo from a multigenerational home presents a high-risk demographic. The estimated ‘effective age’ of an adult living with a grandparent who is not vaccinated may be up to 40 years higher. The proposed model suggests that strategically vaccinating the adults from multigenerational homes in India may be effective in saving the lives of around 70,000 to 200,000 seniors, under the different epidemiological scenarios possible with or without strict lockdowns.

Keywords


COVID-19, High Risk Groups, Intergenerational Homes, Population Demographics, Vaccination Strategy.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv120%2Fi11%2F1698-1704