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Characterizing the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 using a non-parametric framework


Affiliations
1 Department of Computer Science, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack 753 003, India
 

The recently evolved family of coronaviruses known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 has spread across the world at a critically alarming rate, thereby causing a global health emergency. Several nations have been adversely affected in terms of both social and economic aspects. Hence there is an utmost need to control the transmission rate of the virus by incorporating stringent control measures. In this article, a non-parametric framework for characterizing the epidemiological behaviour of COVID-19 is suggested. Several statistical analysis tests have been conducted on the time series data acquired for four countries to derive a relationship between the three considered cases, viz. the new incidence of COVID-19, new deaths, and new sample testing facilities. Further, considering the dynamical behaviour of the sample data, a smoothing spline approach is implemented to obtain a better analysis of the observations. Subsequently, autocorrelation function is used to study the degree of correlation for each considered case for specific time lags. Finally, the non-parametric kernel density estimate is adopted for obtaining a robust characterization of the underlying distributions pertaining to each case considered in this study. Hence these observations lead to the development of an efficient prediction framework that can be implemented for analysing the epidemiological behaviour of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords

Autocorrelation function, COVID-19, epidemiological dynamics, non-parametric statistical tests.
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  • Characterizing the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 using a non-parametric framework

Abstract Views: 299  |  PDF Views: 130

Authors

Sujit Bebortta
Department of Computer Science, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack 753 003, India
Dilip Senapati
Department of Computer Science, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack 753 003, India

Abstract


The recently evolved family of coronaviruses known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 has spread across the world at a critically alarming rate, thereby causing a global health emergency. Several nations have been adversely affected in terms of both social and economic aspects. Hence there is an utmost need to control the transmission rate of the virus by incorporating stringent control measures. In this article, a non-parametric framework for characterizing the epidemiological behaviour of COVID-19 is suggested. Several statistical analysis tests have been conducted on the time series data acquired for four countries to derive a relationship between the three considered cases, viz. the new incidence of COVID-19, new deaths, and new sample testing facilities. Further, considering the dynamical behaviour of the sample data, a smoothing spline approach is implemented to obtain a better analysis of the observations. Subsequently, autocorrelation function is used to study the degree of correlation for each considered case for specific time lags. Finally, the non-parametric kernel density estimate is adopted for obtaining a robust characterization of the underlying distributions pertaining to each case considered in this study. Hence these observations lead to the development of an efficient prediction framework that can be implemented for analysing the epidemiological behaviour of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords


Autocorrelation function, COVID-19, epidemiological dynamics, non-parametric statistical tests.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv122%2Fi7%2F790-800