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Analysis of rainfall trend using non-parametric methods and innovative trend analysis during 1901–2020 in seven states of North East India


Affiliations
1 Department of Physics, DDR College, Chabua, Dibrugarh 786 184, India; Department of Physics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
2 Department of Physics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
3 Department of Statistics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
 

In this study, we analysed the variability and trends in annual as well as seasonal rainfall in the seven states of North East India for the period 1901–2020, using non-parametric tests like Mann–Kendall, trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), as well as using the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The study revealed the variabilities in annual and seasonal rainfall in these seven states. In most cases, the results of all the tests were identical. However, significant differences were observed in the case of post-monsoon rainfall of Assam and Meghalaya, pre-monsoon rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Tripura, as well as in winter rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh and monsoon rainfall of Tripura. Compared to the other states of NE India and other tests, ITA detected no significant annual trend for Tripura; however, the winter season exhibited a decreasing trend. It was observed that only the MMK test could predict such changes in rainfall distribution across seasons to a certain extent at varying significance levels in comparison to the other three methods. Since these states are vulnerable to water-related disasters, this study could help policymakers arrive at valuable climatic and water resource management decisions.

Keywords

Climate change, innovative trend analysis, non-parametric tests, rainfall patterns, water resource management.
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  • Analysis of rainfall trend using non-parametric methods and innovative trend analysis during 1901–2020 in seven states of North East India

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Authors

Shyam Lochan Bora
Department of Physics, DDR College, Chabua, Dibrugarh 786 184, India; Department of Physics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
Kalyan Bhuyan
Department of Physics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
Partha Jyoti Hazarika
Department of Statistics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
Junmi Gogoi
Department of Physics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India
Kuldeep Goswami
Department of Statistics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786 004, India

Abstract


In this study, we analysed the variability and trends in annual as well as seasonal rainfall in the seven states of North East India for the period 1901–2020, using non-parametric tests like Mann–Kendall, trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), as well as using the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The study revealed the variabilities in annual and seasonal rainfall in these seven states. In most cases, the results of all the tests were identical. However, significant differences were observed in the case of post-monsoon rainfall of Assam and Meghalaya, pre-monsoon rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Tripura, as well as in winter rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh and monsoon rainfall of Tripura. Compared to the other states of NE India and other tests, ITA detected no significant annual trend for Tripura; however, the winter season exhibited a decreasing trend. It was observed that only the MMK test could predict such changes in rainfall distribution across seasons to a certain extent at varying significance levels in comparison to the other three methods. Since these states are vulnerable to water-related disasters, this study could help policymakers arrive at valuable climatic and water resource management decisions.

Keywords


Climate change, innovative trend analysis, non-parametric tests, rainfall patterns, water resource management.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv122%2Fi7%2F801-811