Current Science

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on forest Ecosystems for Landscape-Scale Spatial Planning in Nepal


Affiliations
1 WWF Nepal Program, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal
2 Hariyo Ban Program, WWF Nepal and CARE, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal
 

Global climate change is affecting biodiversity and ecological processes. We coupled a general circulation model that uses global datasets with terrain-based analyses to identify potential climate refugia in two conservation landscapes in Nepal for climate changeintegrated conservation planning. The results indicate that lower and mid-montane forests are vulnerable to climate change, but the temperate upper montane and subalpine forests are more resilient and represent macrorefugia. However, the terrain-based analysis indicates persistence of climate microrefugia in the lower and mid-mountains. Conservation strategies should prioritize the larger climate-resilient forests as macrorefugia, but also include the microrefugia in landscape conservation plans.

Keywords

Climate Change, Forest Ecosystems, Refugia, Landscape Conservation.
User
Notifications
Font Size

  • Wikramanayake, E. D., Carpenter, C., Strand, H. and McKnight, M., Ecoregion-based conservation in the Eastern Himalaya. Identifying important areas for biodiversity conservation. World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal, 2001.

  • Wikramanayake, E. D. et al., Terrestrial Ecoregions of the IndoPacific: A Conservation Assessment, Island Press, Washington, DC, 2001.

  • Chettri, N. et al., Biodiversity in the Eastern Himalayas: status, trends and vulnerability to climate change. In Climate change impact and vulnerability in the Eastern Himalayas – Technical report 2, ICIMOD, Kathmandu, 2010.

  • Shrestha, U. B., Gautam, S. and Bawa, K. S., Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems. PLoS ONE, 2012, 7, e36741; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone. 0036741.

  • Eriksson, M., Jianchu, X., Shrestha, A. B., Vaidya, R. A., Nepal, S. and Sandström, K., The changing Himalayas – impact of climate change on water resources and livelihoods in the Greater Himalayas. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, 2009, p. 23.

  • Xu, J., Grumbine, R. E., Shrestha, A., Eriksson, M., Yang, X., Wang, Y. and Wilkes, A., The melting Himalayas: cascading effects of climate change on water, biodiversity, and livelihoods. Conserv. Biol., 2009, 23, 520–530.

  • Singh, S. P., Singh, V. and Skutsch, M., Rapid warming in the Himalayas: ecosystem responses and development options. Climate Develop., 2010, 2, 221–232.

  • Sharma, E., Bhuchar, S., Xing, M. and Kothyari, P., Land use change and its impact on hydro-ecological linkages in Himalayan watersheds. Trop. Ecol., 2007, 48, 151–161.

  • Costanza, R. et al., The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 1997, 387, 253–260.

  • Gurung, G. B. and Bhandari, D., Integrated approach to climate change adaptation. J. For. Livelihood, 2009, 8, 91–99.

  • Lawler, J., Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning. Annu. NY Acad. Sci., 2009, 1162, 79–98.

  • Hannah, L. G. et al., Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate. Conserv. Biol., 2002, 16, 264–268.

  • Holling, C. S., Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 1973, 4, 1–23.

  • Ashcroft, M. A., Identifying refugia from climate change. J. Biogeogr., 2010, 37, 1407–1413.

  • Hannah, L., Flint, L., Syphard, A. D., Moritz, M. A., Buckley, L. B. and McCullough, I. M., Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia. Trends Ecol. Evol., 2014, 29, 390–397.

  • Schmitz, O. J. et al., Conserving biodiversity: practical guidance about climate change adaptation approaches in support of land-use planning. Nat. Areas J., 2015, 35, 190–203.

  • Dobrowski, S. Z., A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate. Global Change Biol., 2011, 17, 1022–1035.

  • Ashcroft, M. B., Chisholm, L. A. and French, K. O., Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation. Global Change Biol., 2009, 15, 656–667.

  • Keppel, G. et al., Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 2012, 21, 393–404.

  • Wikramanayake, E., Manandhar, A., Bajimaya, S., Nepal, S., Thapa, G. and Thapa, K., The Terai Arc Landscape: a tiger conservation success story in a human-dominated landscape. In The Science, Politics, and Conservation of Panthera tigris. Tigers of the World (eds Tilson, R. and Nyhus, P.), Elsevier/Academic Press, New York, 2010, 2nd edn, pp. 161–172.

  • MFSC, Terai Arc Landscape – Nepal. Strategic Plan 2004–2014. Broad strategy document. Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, 2004.

  • Negi, G. C. S., Samal, P. K., Kuniyal, J. C., Kothyari, B. P., Sharma, R. K. and Dhyani, P. P., Impact of climate change on the western Himalayan mountain ecosystems: an overview. Trop. Ecol., 2012, 53, 345–356.

  • Côté, I. M. and Darling, E. S., Rethinking ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change. PLoS Biol., 2010, 8, e1000438; doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1000438.

  • IPCC, Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. In Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007, pp. 235–336.

  • Hansen, J., Sato, M. and Ruedy, R., Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., USA, 2012, 109, 2415–2423.

  • World Bank Group. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014.

  • Yackulic, C. B., Chandler, R., Zipkin, E. F, Royle, J. A., Nichols, J. D., Campbell Grant, E. H. and Veran, S., Presence-only modelling using MAXENT: when can we trust inferences? Meth. Ecol. Evol., 2013, 4, 236–243.

  • DoF, Forest and vegetation types of Nepal. TISC Document Series No. 105. Department of Forest, Government of Nepal, International Year of Mountain Publication, Nepal, 2002.

  • Phillipps, S. J., Anderson, R. P. and Shapire, R. E., Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Modelling, 2006, 190, 231–259.

  • Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. and Jarvis, A., Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol., 2005, 25, 1965–1978.

  • Ramirez, J. and Jarvis, A., Downscaling global circulation model outputs: the delta method. Decision and Policy Analysis Working Paper No. 1, CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia, 2010.

  • DoF, Forest cover map, Department of Forest. Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, 2010.

  • BCN and DNPWC, the State of Nepal’s birds 2010. Bird Conservation Nepal and Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation, Kathmandu, 2011.

  • Nanhoe, L. M. R. and Ouboter, P. E., The distribution of reptiles and amphibians in the Annapurna–Dhaulagiri Region (Nepal). Zool. Verh. (Leiden), 1987, 240, 1–105.

  • Khanal, B., Chalise, M. K. and Solanki, G. S., Diversity of butterflies with respect to altitudinal rise at various pockets of the Langtang National Park, central Nepal. Int. Multidiscip. Res. J., 2012, 2, 41–48.

  • Khanal, B., Diversity and status of butterflies in lowland districts of west Nepal. J. Nat. Hist. Mus., 2008, 23, 92–97.

  • Vetaas, O. R. and Grytnes, J., Distribution of vascular plant species richness and endemic richness along the Himalayan elevation gradient in Nepal. Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 2002, 11, 291–301.

  • Olson, D. and Dinerstein, E., The global 200: priority ecoregion for global conservation. Ann. Mo. Bot. Gard., 2002, 89, 199–224.

  • Pradhan, S., Saha, G. K. and Khan, J. A., Ecology of the red panda Ailurus fulgens in the Singhalila National Park, Darjeeling, India. Biol. Conserv., 2001, 98, 11–18.

  • Forrest, J. L. et al., Conservation and climate change: assessing the vulnerability of snow leopard habitat to treeline shift in the Himalaya. Biol. Conserv., 2012, 150, 129–135.

  • Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T. Gunderson, L. and Holling, C. S., Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 2004, 35, 557–581; doi: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.35. 021103.105711.

  • Nagendra, H., Tenure and forest conditions: community forestry in the Nepal Terai. Environ. Conserv., 2002, 29, 530–539.

  • IPCC, Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.

  • Heikkinen, R. K., Luoto, M., Araujo, M. B., Virkkala, R., Thuiller, W. and Sykes, M. T., Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 2006, 6, 1–27.


Abstract Views: 468

PDF Views: 182




  • Assessing Climate Change Impacts on forest Ecosystems for Landscape-Scale Spatial Planning in Nepal

Abstract Views: 468  |  PDF Views: 182

Authors

Gokarna Jung Thapa
WWF Nepal Program, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Eric Wikramanayake
Hariyo Ban Program, WWF Nepal and CARE, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Shant Raj Jnawali
Hariyo Ban Program, WWF Nepal and CARE, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Judy Oglethorpe
Hariyo Ban Program, WWF Nepal and CARE, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Ramesh Adhikari
WWF Nepal Program, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract


Global climate change is affecting biodiversity and ecological processes. We coupled a general circulation model that uses global datasets with terrain-based analyses to identify potential climate refugia in two conservation landscapes in Nepal for climate changeintegrated conservation planning. The results indicate that lower and mid-montane forests are vulnerable to climate change, but the temperate upper montane and subalpine forests are more resilient and represent macrorefugia. However, the terrain-based analysis indicates persistence of climate microrefugia in the lower and mid-mountains. Conservation strategies should prioritize the larger climate-resilient forests as macrorefugia, but also include the microrefugia in landscape conservation plans.

Keywords


Climate Change, Forest Ecosystems, Refugia, Landscape Conservation.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv110%2Fi3%2F345-352