India's Climate Pledge and the Global Goal of Limiting Warming below 2°C

In this note we have compared India's pledges (also called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with that of other major economies of the world. We find that despite being the most populous country in the world in 2030, India's greenhouse gas emissions under its INDC scenario will still be about a third compared to China. Further, we test India's INDC on the two well-regarded, but divergent approaches of emission reductions sharing between the nations and conclude it is consistent with more than 50% probability of limiting warming below 2°C under both the approaches, provided that other world regions adhere to their required emission reductions.