International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Li Yanbin ¹, Du Tiantian ¹, You Feng ¹

Affiliations
1 North China University of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou-450011, CN

Abstract

Treat Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Sanmenxia, Shangqiu and Nanyang as a typical area of Henan province, start with four factors include exposure of the risk factor, hazard-affected body, environmental vulnerability and drought disaster reduction ability to analysis the reasons of agricultural drought risk. Based on the theory of disaster science this paper use analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighted comprehensive evaluation method and natural disaster risk index to build agricultural drought disaster risk assessment system. Then according to the weather, agriculture, social and economic data and use the optimal segmentation method to evaluation drought disaster risk of the typical city in Henan.

Keywords

Henan Province, Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Evaluation.

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Li Yanbin ¹, You Feng ¹, Li Jia ²

Affiliations
1 North China University of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou-450011, CN
2 Neijiang Vocational Technical College, Neijiang-641100, CN

Abstract

The evaluation model of agricultural drought disaster risk is built on the base of natural disaster risk theory selecting maize as research subject and Meitan as research area; it includes agricultural drought disaster hazard, exposure, vulnerability and drought resistant ability. Trend yield is simulated by three time’s polynomial simulation; relative meteorological yield can be calculated by excluding trend yield from real yield. The relation analysis is done between risk value and relative meteorological yield, the relative equation is established; the risk threshold and risk level of maize different growth stage are defined according to relative equation, crop disaster forming condition and drought level standard. The result show that critical risk value is minimal in seeding-emergence stage, reducing yield occurs easily due to drought when disaster forming condition is met, that is relative meteorological yield value is less than -5%; the possibility of reducing yield due to drought is more in earing -filling and jointing -earing period; drought influence is less in emergence -jointing and filling -mature period. It is coordinate with the fact that summer drought occurs frequently, spring drought occurs on occasion and maize grow characteristics.

Keywords

Drought Disaster Risk, Threshold Value, Maize, Guizhou Meitan.

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