ICTACT Journal on Soft Computing

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Forecasting Quarterly Rice and Corn Production in the Philippines: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Arima and Holt-winters Models


Affiliations
1 Department of Teacher Education, University of Mindanao Digos College, Philippines
     

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Rice and corn are essential crops for the Philippines, playing a critical role in the nation’s economy and food security. However, the agricultural sector faces challenges, including climate variability, land constraints, and the need for imports to meet growing demand. Accurate forecasting of rice and corn production is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation. This research applied Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models to forecast rice and corn production. The study used quarterly production data from 1987 to 2023 obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority. The Holt-Winters model with additive seasonality outperformed the SARIMA model for both rice and corn production, achieving lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. The findings have significant implications for policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and commodity traders, guiding them in making informed decisions regarding import requirements. The volatility of global food prices and exchange rates can significantly impact the cost of imports, putting a strain on the country’s financial resources. Accurate forecasting models are essential for ensuring food sufficiency and making informed decisions on the amount of imports required. By adopting the Holt-Winters model and continuously improving forecasting methodologies, the Philippines can enhance food sufficiency and promote rural economic growth. The study highlighted the importance of accurate forecasting models in ensuring stable and sufficient rice and corn supplies to meet the nation’s growing demands, contributing to sustainable agricultural development and food security. Continuous research in agricultural forecasting methodologies is necessary to address the challenges posed by evolving agricultural dynamics and further enhance predictive accuracy.

Keywords

SARIMA, Holt-Winters, Rice Production, Corn Production, Agricultural Forecasting.
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  • Forecasting Quarterly Rice and Corn Production in the Philippines: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Arima and Holt-winters Models

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Authors

Samuel John E. Parreño
Department of Teacher Education, University of Mindanao Digos College, Philippines

Abstract


Rice and corn are essential crops for the Philippines, playing a critical role in the nation’s economy and food security. However, the agricultural sector faces challenges, including climate variability, land constraints, and the need for imports to meet growing demand. Accurate forecasting of rice and corn production is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation. This research applied Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models to forecast rice and corn production. The study used quarterly production data from 1987 to 2023 obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority. The Holt-Winters model with additive seasonality outperformed the SARIMA model for both rice and corn production, achieving lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. The findings have significant implications for policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and commodity traders, guiding them in making informed decisions regarding import requirements. The volatility of global food prices and exchange rates can significantly impact the cost of imports, putting a strain on the country’s financial resources. Accurate forecasting models are essential for ensuring food sufficiency and making informed decisions on the amount of imports required. By adopting the Holt-Winters model and continuously improving forecasting methodologies, the Philippines can enhance food sufficiency and promote rural economic growth. The study highlighted the importance of accurate forecasting models in ensuring stable and sufficient rice and corn supplies to meet the nation’s growing demands, contributing to sustainable agricultural development and food security. Continuous research in agricultural forecasting methodologies is necessary to address the challenges posed by evolving agricultural dynamics and further enhance predictive accuracy.

Keywords


SARIMA, Holt-Winters, Rice Production, Corn Production, Agricultural Forecasting.

References