Journal of Environment and Sociobiology

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Rainfall Over Eastern Peninsular India-A Look Into the Long-Term Correlational Pattern


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1 Department of Mathematics, Amity University, Kolkata, India Major Arterial Road, Action Area II, Newtown, Kolkata-700135., India
     

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The work presented here uses Markov Chain analysis to provide a thorough understanding of the rainfall over Eastern Peninsula region of India (EPI). The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), which has been seen through normal distribution fitting, has a greater influence on the overall pattern of annual rainfall over eastern peninsula India than the post-monsoon season. The rainfall time series, discretized to a binary time series, has been demonstrated to be serially independent via a Markovian analysis. For all the time series being taken into consideration, a rescaled-range analysis is carried out. It has been noted that the Hurst exponent is smaller than 0.5 in each of the three examples. The time series, do not exhibit significant long-term auto-correlation. Rather, there is a long-term fluctuation between high and low rainfall values.

Keywords

Rainfall, Markovian Analysis, Normal Distribution, Rescaled-Range Analysis, Hurst Exponent.
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  • Rainfall Over Eastern Peninsular India-A Look Into the Long-Term Correlational Pattern

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Authors

Rashmi Rekha Devi
Department of Mathematics, Amity University, Kolkata, India Major Arterial Road, Action Area II, Newtown, Kolkata-700135., India
Surajit Chattopadhyay
Department of Mathematics, Amity University, Kolkata, India Major Arterial Road, Action Area II, Newtown, Kolkata-700135., India

Abstract


The work presented here uses Markov Chain analysis to provide a thorough understanding of the rainfall over Eastern Peninsula region of India (EPI). The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), which has been seen through normal distribution fitting, has a greater influence on the overall pattern of annual rainfall over eastern peninsula India than the post-monsoon season. The rainfall time series, discretized to a binary time series, has been demonstrated to be serially independent via a Markovian analysis. For all the time series being taken into consideration, a rescaled-range analysis is carried out. It has been noted that the Hurst exponent is smaller than 0.5 in each of the three examples. The time series, do not exhibit significant long-term auto-correlation. Rather, there is a long-term fluctuation between high and low rainfall values.

Keywords


Rainfall, Markovian Analysis, Normal Distribution, Rescaled-Range Analysis, Hurst Exponent.

References