8 October, 2005 Muzaffarabad Earthquake and Seismic Hazard Assessment of Kashmir Gap in Northwestern Himalaya

The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake was the deadhest earthquake In the history of Indian subcontinent Its epicenter located 10 km northeast of Muzaffarabad lies in the lndus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ), which represents northwestern continuation of the microseismicity and moderate earthquakes belt of Garhwal, Kumaun and Nepal A multi-institution team undertook post earthquake studies along the LOC and adjoining areas in Tangdhar, Un and Poonch sectors of Kashmir, India The Tangdhar area lying on the hanging wall and the Un area close to the rupture zone have suffered much more damage In comparision to the Poonch region located on the footwall An isoseismal map of the earthquake affected region has been prepared on the basis of our observations and website data The opened-up cracks and lateral spreads mapped In the Tangdhar and Un reglonishow both right-lateral as well as left-lateral strike-slip and vertical motions of a few cm to 30 cm The Mw 7 6 Muzaffarabad earthquake has ruptured a segment -80 km x 50 km west of the closure of Kashrmr Valley An earlier mapped active fault of en echelon nature, trending NW-SE and extending from Balakot to Muzaffarabad and further southeast along the eastern bank of river Jhelum, coincldes with linear trend of the aftershocks belt and the rupture plane of the earthquake The knowledge gamed through ths earthquake implies that a selismic gap of a similar size of unruptured segment that lies between the 1555 Kashmir (Mw 7 5) and 1905 Kangra (Mw 7 8) earthquakes, where there is no historical record of a large earthquake for more than 500 years, may be ripe for a large event.