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Application of Bayesian Credibility Theory in Movie Rankings to Reduce Financial Risk of Production Houses


Affiliations
1 Dept of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
 

Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial science devoted to quantify how unique a particular outcome will be compared to an outcome deemed as typical.

In this paper, we will examine the application of the principles of Bayesian Credibility Theory in rating and ranking movies by a premier online movie database based on user's votes. Although the Bayesian credibility theory was developed originally as a method to calculate the risk premium by combining the individual risk experience with the class risk experience, it is generic enough to deal with a wide range of practical applications quite different from the classical application mentioned above. One such diverse application of the theory in an unlikely domain will be discussed in this paper.


Keywords

Credibility Theory, Prior Distribution, Likelihood Function, Posterior Distribution, Loss Function, Bayesian Approach.
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  • http://www.imdb.com/

  • http://www.imdb.com/chart/top

  • h t t p : / / w w w. i m d b . c o m / h e l p / showleaf?votes

  • http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0111161/ ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt

  • Prasham M.Rambhia, “Usual theory, unusual applications: Credibility Theory and Movie Rankings”, The Actuary India, Vol VIII, Issue 9(2015) 18-20.

  • T. Bauwelinckx, E. Labie and M.J. Goovaerts, “A new approach for loaded credibility premiums” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 37(1991) 301-314.

  • E. Gomez-Deniz, “A generalization of the credibility theory obtained by using the weighted balance loss function”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 42(2008) 850–854.

  • Harald Dornheim, Vytaras Brazauskas, “Robust-efficient credibility models with heavy-tailed claims: A mixed linear models perspective”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 48(2011) 72-84.

  • Jean-Philippe Boucher, Michel Denuit, “Credibility premiums for the zeroinflated Poisson model and new hunger for bonus interpretation”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 42(2008) 727-735.

  • Joseph H.T. Kim, Yongho Jeon, “Credibility theory based on trimming”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 53(2013) 36-47.

  • Whitney, A.W, “The Theory of Experience Rating”, Proceedings of Casualty Actuarial Society 4(1918) 274- 292.


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  • Application of Bayesian Credibility Theory in Movie Rankings to Reduce Financial Risk of Production Houses

Abstract Views: 456  |  PDF Views: 20

Authors

Palash Ranjan Das
Dept of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
Tripti Chakrabarti
Dept of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India

Abstract


Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial science devoted to quantify how unique a particular outcome will be compared to an outcome deemed as typical.

In this paper, we will examine the application of the principles of Bayesian Credibility Theory in rating and ranking movies by a premier online movie database based on user's votes. Although the Bayesian credibility theory was developed originally as a method to calculate the risk premium by combining the individual risk experience with the class risk experience, it is generic enough to deal with a wide range of practical applications quite different from the classical application mentioned above. One such diverse application of the theory in an unlikely domain will be discussed in this paper.


Keywords


Credibility Theory, Prior Distribution, Likelihood Function, Posterior Distribution, Loss Function, Bayesian Approach.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.23862/kiit-parikalpana%2F2016%2Fv12%2Fi2%2F132968