Integrated Cost / Schedule Risk Analysis for Defence Acquisition Projects

Risk assessment is a crucial component in defence acquisition project management. It allows analysts to examine the impact of individual risks on the overall project cost and schedule. This paper suggests a new integrated cost/schedule risk assessment approach that combines cost risk and schedules risk analyses within a single mathematical model. Optimization and Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used to determine the expected cost and completion time of an acquisition project. A case study using a military aircraft replacement project for the Canadian Armed Forces is used to illustrate the approach.