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Integrated Cost / Schedule Risk Analysis for Defence Acquisition Projects


Affiliations
1 Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, Canada
 

Risk assessment is a crucial component in defence acquisition project management. It allows analysts to examine the impact of individual risks on the overall project cost and schedule. This paper suggests a new integrated cost/schedule risk assessment approach that combines cost risk and schedules risk analyses within a single mathematical model. Optimization and Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used to determine the expected cost and completion time of an acquisition project. A case study using a military aircraft replacement project for the Canadian Armed Forces is used to illustrate the approach.

Keywords

Risk Analysis, Schedule Buffer, Cost Contingency, Military, Aircraft.
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  • Integrated Cost / Schedule Risk Analysis for Defence Acquisition Projects

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Authors

Abderrahmane Sokri
Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, Canada
Ahmed Ghanmi
Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, Canada

Abstract


Risk assessment is a crucial component in defence acquisition project management. It allows analysts to examine the impact of individual risks on the overall project cost and schedule. This paper suggests a new integrated cost/schedule risk assessment approach that combines cost risk and schedules risk analyses within a single mathematical model. Optimization and Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used to determine the expected cost and completion time of an acquisition project. A case study using a military aircraft replacement project for the Canadian Armed Forces is used to illustrate the approach.

Keywords


Risk Analysis, Schedule Buffer, Cost Contingency, Military, Aircraft.

References