Deaths in English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) Show Patterns of very Large Shifts Indicative of a Novel Recurring Infectious Event

Deaths in the UK and other Western countries show 12 month periods of unexplained and consistently higher deaths. Excess cold/heat or winter infectious outbreaks cannot explain why deaths would remain high for 12 months, and then suddenly shift back to a 'normal'. This study looks at annual deaths (all-cause mortality) between 2001 and 2013 for males and females in over 32,000 English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA). Some 40% of LSOA showed at least one instance of a year to year change exceeding +2.5 standard deviations equivalent difference (compared with only 0.7% due to chance). The magnitude of the maximum difference was highest in women. Particular years showed evidence of a widespread switch to higher deaths. In very small social networks the maximum step-like change in deaths exceeds a + 300% increase. An event of alarming magnitude is showing a recurring time series similar to a slow-moving 'novel' infectious outbreak.