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Assessment of the Peste Des Petits Ruminants World Epizootic Situation and Estimate its Spreading to Russia


Affiliations
1 Department of Animal Disease, Veterinarian and Sanitarian Expertise, Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University, Saratov, Russian Federation
2 Department of Food Technology, Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University, Saratov, Russian Federation
3 Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment , Saratov Research Veterinary Institute-Branch of Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Saratov, Russian Federation
 

Aim: This study focuses on the spatial dynamic associated with the spreading of the peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease for the past decade (from the year 2007 to 2017), assesses the resulting situation in the world, and has an emphasis on Russian advantages been a PPR host.

Materials and Methods: Outbreaks were confirmed and reported officially by the World Organization for Animal Health (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and polymerase chain reaction were used). Data contain the account number of infected, dead, and all susceptible animals in focus of infection in the period of 2007-2017. Once conventional statistical population was defined, a model was installed. Geo-information system QuickMAP was used to clear up the map disease, and through the @Risk program, we got our forecasting value of future situations (by Monte Carlo method).

Results: The spatial study of PPR’s occurrence and its spread was mapping according to the incidence of cases and outbreaks. Clusters demonstrated risk levels in the world in the period from 2007 to 2017 year. Based on the epizootological analysis, an assessment of PPR risk and the probability movement of infection in Russia from nearby disadvantaged countries had been carried out. A statistically significant impact of the socioeconomic system on the stationarity index was found equal to 0.63. The PPR risk of spreading could not be ignored. Nevertheless, conducting effective large-scale vaccine companies in a complex of antiepizootic activities against PPR could reduce the risk of spread of the disease up to 91.8%.

Conclusion: Despite all mentioned facts above, the PPR probability can only be reduced by coordinating work of border veterinary services, as in disadvantaged as in free from this disease country, that is, what makes an effective and complete eradication of the disease could be quite realistic.

Keywords

Forecast, Incidence, Outbreaks, Peste Des Petit Ruminants, Risk Factors.
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  • Assessment of the Peste Des Petits Ruminants World Epizootic Situation and Estimate its Spreading to Russia

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Authors

Fayssal Bouchemla
Department of Animal Disease, Veterinarian and Sanitarian Expertise, Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University, Saratov, Russian Federation
Valerey Alexandrovich Agoltsov
Department of Animal Disease, Veterinarian and Sanitarian Expertise, Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University, Saratov, Russian Federation
Olga Mikhailovna Popova
Department of Food Technology, Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University, Saratov, Russian Federation
Larisa Pavlovna Padilo
Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment , Saratov Research Veterinary Institute-Branch of Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Saratov, Russian Federation

Abstract


Aim: This study focuses on the spatial dynamic associated with the spreading of the peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease for the past decade (from the year 2007 to 2017), assesses the resulting situation in the world, and has an emphasis on Russian advantages been a PPR host.

Materials and Methods: Outbreaks were confirmed and reported officially by the World Organization for Animal Health (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and polymerase chain reaction were used). Data contain the account number of infected, dead, and all susceptible animals in focus of infection in the period of 2007-2017. Once conventional statistical population was defined, a model was installed. Geo-information system QuickMAP was used to clear up the map disease, and through the @Risk program, we got our forecasting value of future situations (by Monte Carlo method).

Results: The spatial study of PPR’s occurrence and its spread was mapping according to the incidence of cases and outbreaks. Clusters demonstrated risk levels in the world in the period from 2007 to 2017 year. Based on the epizootological analysis, an assessment of PPR risk and the probability movement of infection in Russia from nearby disadvantaged countries had been carried out. A statistically significant impact of the socioeconomic system on the stationarity index was found equal to 0.63. The PPR risk of spreading could not be ignored. Nevertheless, conducting effective large-scale vaccine companies in a complex of antiepizootic activities against PPR could reduce the risk of spread of the disease up to 91.8%.

Conclusion: Despite all mentioned facts above, the PPR probability can only be reduced by coordinating work of border veterinary services, as in disadvantaged as in free from this disease country, that is, what makes an effective and complete eradication of the disease could be quite realistic.

Keywords


Forecast, Incidence, Outbreaks, Peste Des Petit Ruminants, Risk Factors.

References