International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Systems

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access
Open Access Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Restricted Access Subscription Access

Time Series forecasting of Arrival Tourists in Southwest Algeria: Case Study of Bechar.


Affiliations
1 Bechar University B. P. 417,08000 Bechar., Algeria
     

   Subscribe/Renew Journal


The aim of this work is to discuss and find the best and appropriate modeling of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and uses it as an element of forecasting of the number of arrival tourists to Bechar as a tourists destination in Algeria by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting arrival tourists is ARIMA(1,0,1)×(2,1,2)4 with a constant.

Keywords

Tourism, Time Series, Sarima, Box-jenkins, Forecasting And Algeria
Subscription Login to verify subscription
User
Notifications
Font Size


  • Boudi Abdel Kader. (2006). "The importance of marketing tourism in the development of tourism in Algeria" PhD theses, University of Algeria.

  • Naill, P. E. & Momani, M. (2009). "Time Series Analysis Model for Rainfall Data in Jordan:Case Study for Using Time Series Analysis", American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 5 (5), 599-604.

  • Rangsan Nochai & Titida Nochai. (2006). "ARIMA Model For Forecasting Oil Palm Price", Proceedings of the 2nd IMT-GT Regional conference on Mathematics, Statistics and Applications University Sains Malysia, Penang, June 13-15.

  • Robert H. Shumwa & David S. Stoffer, "Time Series Analysis and Its Applications With R Examples", Second Edition, pp.84-154.


Abstract Views: 277

PDF Views: 0




  • Time Series forecasting of Arrival Tourists in Southwest Algeria: Case Study of Bechar.

Abstract Views: 277  |  PDF Views: 0

Authors

Abdel Kader Boudi
Bechar University B. P. 417,08000 Bechar., Algeria
Zouaoui Chikr-ElMezouar
Bechar University B. P. 417,08000 Bechar., Algeria

Abstract


The aim of this work is to discuss and find the best and appropriate modeling of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and uses it as an element of forecasting of the number of arrival tourists to Bechar as a tourists destination in Algeria by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting arrival tourists is ARIMA(1,0,1)×(2,1,2)4 with a constant.

Keywords


Tourism, Time Series, Sarima, Box-jenkins, Forecasting And Algeria

References