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- Cocoa Products Exports of India:A Markov Chain Analysis
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Authors
Affiliations
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, IN
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, IN
Source
International Journal of Education and Management Studies, Vol 7, No 3 (2017), Pagination: 425-428Abstract
After introduction of cocoa in early half of 20th century, it gained momentum in late l990s only. Though the growth rates in area, production, export quantity and value were heartening, the actual situation of Indian export sector of cocoa products was disheartening. The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian cocoa products exports. Data for analysis was taken for a period of 16 years from 2000-01 to 2016-17. The Markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major cocoa markets. The major Indian cocoa export markets were categorized as stable market (USA, China, & others) and unstable markets (Singapore, Netherland) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The major export markets for Indian cocoas were USA (14.9%), Nepal(11.6%),China(7.71%), Netherland (6.94%)and Singapore (5.06%). The holistic conclusion leads to the need of emphasizing on productivity enhancing research, measures to stabilize existing markets and tapping other markets section for improvement in this sector.Keywords
Markov Chain, Cocoa Products, Export Direction, Structural Change.
References
- Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). http://agriexchange.apeda.gov.in/product_profile/prd_profile.aspx?categorycode=0504
- Annual Report (2014-15). International Cocoa Organization, https://www.icco.org/about-us/international-cocoa
- Dent, W. T (1967). Application of Markov analysis to international wool flows. Review of Economics and Statistics, 49(2), 613-616.
- Directorate of Cashew and Cocoa Development http://dccd.gov.in/WriteReadData/ContentFiles/ContentFile-20170607015605PM.pdf
- Essoh N.P.S. (2014). Cote divoire commodities export and shipping: Challenges for port traffic and regional market size. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 4,234-245.
- Fialor, S. (1985). An analysis of the production pattern and marketing of cocoa in Ghana. M. Sc. (Agri) Thesis, University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore.
- Seetharaman, G. (2017). Despite growing demand for chocolate, India imports most of its cocoa. The Economic Times, pp.8.
- Kusuma, D. K., & Basavaraju, H. (2014). Stability analysis of mango export markets of lndia: Markoc chain approach. Karnataka Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 27(1), 39.
- Kumar, P., Badal, P.S., & Achoth, L. (2007). Changing direction of Indian mango exports. Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketin, 21(1),129-135.
- Yeledhalli, R.A., Praveen, H.P, Chidanand, P, & Naik, V.R. (2012). Changing direction and magnitude of India major fruit export to middle east countries. International Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 8(2), 650-670.
- Structural Changes in India's Trade of Pulses:A Markov Approach
Abstract Views :212 |
PDF Views:0
Authors
Affiliations
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, IN
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, IN
Source
International Journal of Education and Management Studies, Vol 7, No 3 (2017), Pagination: 438-441Abstract
To access the growth and structural changes taking place in pulses area, production, productivity and trade aspects this analysis was carried out for a period of 10 years ranging from 2007-08 to 2016-17. It was done by calculating compound and simple growth statistics and by developing separate transitional matrix for exports and imports. Results regarding area, production, productivity, collective quantity and value of exports exhibited 1.88 percent, 3.63 percent, 1.71 percent,5.45 percent and 3.23 percent rate of compound growth rate respectively. Markov Chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major pulses export markets of Indian pulses and nations importing pulses to India. The major Indian pulses export markets were categorized as stable market (UAE) and unstable markets (Pakistan & Saudi Arab) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The import transition matrix also brought forward Canada and Myanmar as most trusted and Australia & USA as most unstable suppliers of Indian pulses imports. In conclusion, the growth in production (3.63 %) of the world's largest producer was far behind the simultaneous growth in import quantity (17.12%).Keywords
Markov, Pulses, Export Direction, Structural Change.References
- Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, (APEDA) (2013). http://agriexchange.apeda.gov.in/product_profile/prd_profile.aspx?category code=0504 Food and agricultural Organisation Statistics.
- Hugar L B., 2002, Onion Export Markets and Their Stability for Increasing India's Exports: Markov Chain Approach. Artha-Vikas, XXX(VII), 1-9.
- Krishnadas, M. (2010). Production and export performance of major Indian spices an economic analysis. Thesis submitted to Department of agricultural economics the university of agricultural sciences, Dharwad.
- Kumar, P, Badal, P. S., & Achoth, L. (2007). Changing direction of Indian mango exports. Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing, 21(1), 129-135.
- Martolia, R. (2016). Dynamics of pulse production and trade in India. Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, PhD Thesis, Report No. P0061.
- Siddeshwar, S., Shiraganvi, & Guledagudda, S. S. (2017). Analysis of chickpea export markets of India-Markov chain approach. International Journal of Current Research, 9(2), 46542-46544.
- Srivastavaa,S. K., Sivaramaneb, N., & Mathura, V. C. (2010). Diagnosis of pulses performance of India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 23, 137-148.