Informatics Publishing Limited

Liangqian Fan ¹, Fenghui Chen ¹, Hongbing Luo ¹

Affiliations
1 College of Urban and Rural Development, Sichuan Agricultural University, Dujiangyan 611830, CN

Abstract

Based on the statistics in Sichuan province during 1978-2010, the dynamic process of cultivated land area change and economic growth was analysed firstly. And then, the regression model between cultivated land area and pre capita GDP was established. At last, the cultivated land area under different levels of economic growth was predicted according to the established regression model. The results were that the cultivated land area in Sichuan province showed the decreased trend and the decreased trend can be divided into three phases, slowly decreasing phase, drastically decreasing phase and eased phase, in the past 33 years. The cultivated land area and pre capita GDP were negatively correlated and the correlation equation was a logarithmic decreasing function in Sichuan province. With the gradual increase of the per capita GDP, the cultivated land area will decrease slowly in the future, but the decreasing trend may be stabilized. Combined with the development status of Sichuan province, the results indicated that the contraction between the cultivated land area and pre capita GDP can be mitigated or even eliminated with scientific land management strategy, input increase and technological transformation. On the basis of the study, the protection suggestions were proposed from the point of view of avoiding occupation and degradation of cultivated land.

Keywords

Cultivated Land, Economic Growth, Per Capita GDP, Correlation Equation.

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