Can Mutual Fund Predict the Future? An Empirical Study

The present study seeks to examine the NAV performance of the selected open-ended mutual fund schemes in India. The study also investigates whether the past return performance of the mutual funds may be used as a reliable indicator to predict the future return. To accomplish these objectives, closing monthly NAV data on 56 open-ended income schemes are considered over a period from January 2001 to December 2009. Then, we compute the average NAV and found a good consistency in performance. With a view to examine the consistency in return performance of the selected mutual fund schemes, auto-regressive model is applied and observed that only 34 schemes out of 56 openended income schemes have consistently influenced the return performance.