Impact of Projected Climate Change on Rice ( Oryza sativa L.) Yield Using CERES-Rice Model in Different Agroclimatic Zones of India

Climate change is projected to alter the growing conditions of rice crop in different regions of India. Crop growth simulation model (DSSATv4.6) was calibrated and evaluated with four rice cultivars: PR 118 in Amritsar, Ludhiana; HKR 126 in Hisar and Ambala; Pant 4 in Kanpur and Sugandha-1126 in Modipuram on different sowing dates. The average yield of the selected optimum dates was 6391, 6531, 7751, 7561, 4347 and 4131 kg/ha for Amritsar, Ludhiana, Hisar, Ambala, Modipuram and Kanpur respectively. Both temperature and CO₂ have increased. The combined effect of temperature and CO₂ indicates decreased yield rate in the future decades. The present study shows that rice yield will decrease in the future and this may be due to increase in temperature. According to projection results, for all the locations average yield is higher in the decade 2010, except Amritsar in the decade 2030 and Ludhiana in the decade 2050. The average yield at Hisar, Ambala, Modipuram and Kanpur in 2010 was 7744, 7654, 4347 and 4021 kg/ha respectively. Amritsar and Ludhiana showed maximum average yield of 6880 and 6877 kg/ha respectively, in the decade 2030. Such yield reductions in rice crops due to climate change are mediated through reduction in crop duration, grain number and grain filling duration. These projections nevertheless provide a direction of likely change in crop productivity in future climate change scenarios.