Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Diversion from the Bago River to the Moeyingyi Wetland, Myanmar

Originally built for flood control, the Moeyingyi wetland, Myanmar now provides valuable resources such as fishery, irrigation water and tourism, and is also home to many rare species and migratory birds. This is the only wetland in Myanmar listed as a Ramsar Site. Bias-corrected climate data from three general circulation models under two emission scenarios of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5), namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to forecast temperature and rainfall. Future climate scenarios were predicted for three future periods as 2020s (2021-30), 2030s (2031- 40) and 2040s (2041-50). The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological analysis to predict water availability. Analysis suggests that the discharge is expected to decrease during dry season, which can have a negative impact on the diversion of water from the Bago River to the Moeyingyi wetland. On the other hand, discharge is likely to increase during July and can further worsen the recurring floods. Similarly, inflow at the Moeyingyi wetland is expected to decrease in future. Hence, robust adaptation strategies should be formulated to cope with the negative impact of climate change.