Current Science

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Quantification of Regional and Global Sustainability Based on Combined Resource Criticality of Land and Water


Affiliations
1 CSIR-National Institute for Science, Technology and Development Studies (NISTADS), Dr K.S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110 012, India
2 Department of Mathematics, M.S. Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Peenya Campus, Bengaluru 560 058, India
 

The overall global food sustainability is limited by the simultaneous availability of primary resources at regional scales, although the international trade network can redistribute available (surplus) food. Assessments based on isolated resource (like water) or demand (like food) cannot provide correct estimates of sustainability. We define a novel criticality index on the basis of simultaneous regional availability of arable land and water to quantify sustainability. Analyses at regional and global scale show that while a relatively small fraction of world population is subcritical in terms of food availability, much larger fractions are becoming subcritical in terms of food production. The combined resource criticality implies stronger constraints for sustainability.

Keywords

Agricultural Sustainability, Carrying Capacity, Criticality Index, Food Sustainability, Water Sustainability.
User
Notifications
Font Size

  • Pretty, J., Agricultural sustainability: concepts, principles and evidence. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B. Biol. Sci., 2008, 363, 447–465.

  • Goswami, P. and Nishad, S., Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: a comparative regional analysis. Sci. Rep., 2015, 5(9306), 1–11.

  • Goswami, P. and Nishad, S., Dynamical formalism for assessment and projection of carrying capacity in different socio-climatic scenarios. Curr. Sci., 2015, 109(2), 280–287.

  • Goswami, P. and Nishad, S., Assessment of agricultural sustainability in changing scenarios: a case study for India. Curr. Sci., 2014, 106, 552–557.

  • Allen, P., Food for the Future: Conditions and Contradictions of Sustainability, John Wiley, New York, 1993.

  • Helms, M., Food sustainability, food security and the environment. Brit. Food J., 2004, 106, 380–387.

  • Konar, M. et al., Water for food: the global virtual water trade network. Water Resour. Res., 2011, 47, W0552.

  • Odegard, I. R. Y. and Voet, E. V., The future of food – scenarios and the effect on natural resource use in agriculture in 2050. Ecol. Econ., 2014, 97, 51–59.

  • Hamdy, A. and Trisrio-Liuzzi, G., How to achieve the required food production to meet the growing demand? New Medit., 2009, 8, 4–12.

  • Gilland, World population and food supply: can food production keep pace with population growth in the next half-century. Food Policy, 2002, 27, 27–63.

  • Godfray, H. C. J. et al., Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 2010, 327, 812–818.

  • Godfray, H. C. J. et al., The future of the global food system. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London B Biol. Sci., 2010, 365, 2769–2777.

  • Kearney, J., Food consumption trends and drivers. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B. Biol. Sci., 2010, 365, 2793–2807.

  • Wirsenius, S., Azar, C. and Berndes, G., How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agric. Syst., 2010, 103, 621–638.

  • Speth, J., Global food needs and resource limits. In Sustainability of Rice in the Global Food System (eds Dowling, N. G., Greenfield, S. M. and Ficsher, K. S.), Pacific Basin Study Center, International Rice Research Institute, Manila, Philippines, 1988, pp. 11–15.

  • Cohen, J., Population growth and earth’s human carrying capacity. Science, 1995, 269, 341–346.

  • Kastner, T., Rivas, M. J. I., Koch, W. and Nonhebel, S., Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2012, 109, 6868–6872.

  • Doos, B. R., Population growth and loss of arable land. Glob. Environ. Change, 2002, 12, 303–311.

  • Rulli, M. C., Saviori, A. and D’Odorico, P., Global land and water grabbing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2013, 110, 892–897.

  • Liu, Y. S., Wang, J. Y. and Long, H. L., Analysis of arable land loss and its impact on rural sustainability in Southern Jiangsu Province of China. J. Environ. Manage., 2010, 91, 646–643.

  • Hanjra, M. A. and Qureshi, M. E., Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy, 2010, 35, 365–377.

  • Falkenmark, M., Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A, 2013, 371, 20120410(1–4).

  • Yang, H., Reichert, P., Abbaspour, K. C. and Zehnder, A. J. B., A water resources threshold and its implications for food security. Environ. Sci. Technol., 2003, 37, 3048–3054.

  • Forouzani, M. and Karami, E., Agricultural water poverty index and sustainability. Agron. Sustain. Dev., 2011, 31, 415–431.

  • Fereres, E., Orgaz, F. and Gonzalez-Dugo, V., Reflections on food security under water scarcity. J. Exp. Bot., 2011, 62, 4079–4086.

  • Postel, S. L., Entering an era of water scarcity: the challenges ahead. Ecol. Appl., 2000, 10, 941–948.

  • Xiong, et al., Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China. Agric. Ecosyst. Enviorn., 2010, 135, 58–69.

  • Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. and Brklacich, M., Climate change and food security. Philos. T.R. Soc. B, 2005, 360, 2139–2148.

  • Arnell, M. W., Climate change and global water resources. Global. Environ. Change, 1999, 9, S31–S49.

  • Brown, M. E. and Chunk, S., Food security under climate change. Science, 2008, 319, 580–581.

  • Vorosmarty, C. J., Douglas, E. M, Green, P. A. and Revenga, C., Geospatial indicators of emerging water stress: an application to Africa. Ambio, 2005, 34, 230–236.

  • Sullivan, C. A. and Meigh, J. R., Considering the water poverty index in the context of poverty alleviation. Water Policy, 2003, 5, 513–528.

  • Sandoval-Solis, S., McKinney, D. and Loucks, D., Sustainability index for water resources planning and management. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage, 2011, 137, 381–390.

  • Brown, A. and Matlock, M. D., A Review of Water Scarcity Index and Methodologies, White paper 106, the Sustainability Consortium, University of Arkansas, USA, 2011.

  • Lawrence, P., Meigh, J. and Sullivan, C., The water poverty index: international comparisons. Keele Economic Research Paper, University of Keele, Staffordshire, 2002.

  • Asheesh, M., Allocating the gaps of shared water resources (the scarcity index) case study Palestine Israel. In Water Resource in the Middle East (eds Shuval, H. and Dweik, H.), Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, 2007, pp. 241–248.

  • Chaves, H. M. L. and Alipaz, S., An integrated indicator based on basin hydrology, environment, life and policy: the watershed sustainability index. Water Resour. Manage, 2007, 21, 883–895.

  • Gleick, P. H., Basic water requirements for human activities: meeting basic needs. Water Intern., 1996, 21, 83–92.

  • Brown, L. R. and Kane, H., Full House: Reassessing the Earth’s Population Carrying Capacity. W.W. Norton and Company, New York, 1994.

  • Leonard, T. M., Encyclopedia of the Developing World, Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, New York, 2006.

  • FAOSTAT, 2010; http://faostat.fao.org/

  • FAO AQUASTAT: Water Use, 2010; http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_use/index6.stm

  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Soil loss accelerating worldwide: hinders effort to feed earth’s growing population. FAO, Washington, DC, 1993, p. 9.

  • Smil, V. C., Energy, Food, Environment: Realities, Myths, Options, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1987.

  • Zhao, W., Arable land change dynamics and their driving forces for the major countries of the world. Shengtai Xuebao/Acta Ecol. Sin., 2012, 32, 6452–6462.

  • Xie, Y. M., Guanjin, T. and Xeurong, X., Socio-economic driving forces of arable land conversion: a case study of Wuxian City, China. Glob. Environ. Change, 2005, 15, 238–252.

  • Gustavsson, J., Cederberg, C., Sonesson, U., Otterdijk, R. V. and Meybeck, A., Global Food Losses and Global Food Waste, FAO, Rome, 2011.


Abstract Views: 386

PDF Views: 116




  • Quantification of Regional and Global Sustainability Based on Combined Resource Criticality of Land and Water

Abstract Views: 386  |  PDF Views: 116

Authors

Prashant Goswami
CSIR-National Institute for Science, Technology and Development Studies (NISTADS), Dr K.S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110 012, India
Shivnarayan Nishad
Department of Mathematics, M.S. Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Peenya Campus, Bengaluru 560 058, India

Abstract


The overall global food sustainability is limited by the simultaneous availability of primary resources at regional scales, although the international trade network can redistribute available (surplus) food. Assessments based on isolated resource (like water) or demand (like food) cannot provide correct estimates of sustainability. We define a novel criticality index on the basis of simultaneous regional availability of arable land and water to quantify sustainability. Analyses at regional and global scale show that while a relatively small fraction of world population is subcritical in terms of food availability, much larger fractions are becoming subcritical in terms of food production. The combined resource criticality implies stronger constraints for sustainability.

Keywords


Agricultural Sustainability, Carrying Capacity, Criticality Index, Food Sustainability, Water Sustainability.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv114%2Fi02%2F355-366