Forest Cover Monitoring and Prediction in A Lesser Himalayan Elephant Landscape

We have monitored the forest cover depletion in parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh over an area of 42,375 km² in an elephant landscape falling in the Lesser Himalaya, North East India and report the results here. The US Army topographic maps (1924) and multi-date satellite images (1975, 1990, 2000 and 2009) were visually interpreted on-screen for post-classification comparison and forest cover change detection. The exercise showed continuous high loss of forest cover during the study period. A land area having 17,846.27 km² forest in 1924 was depleted to 12,514.56 km² by 1975, 11,861.75 km² by 1990, 10,808.92 km² by 2000 and 10,256.58 km² by 2009, thereby indicating a constant decrease in forest cover by 12.59%, 1.54%, 2.48% and 1.31% respectively. The total loss in forest cover was estimated to be about 7590 km² from 1924 to 2009. The Cellular Automata Markov Model has predicted a further likely decrease of 9007.14 km² by 2028. In general, more districts of Assam than Arunachal Pradesh and more plains than hills faced deforestation. We have identified increasing human population and subsequent demand on the land for cultivation as major reasons for forest cover depletion.