Probabilistic Analysis of Seismic Data for Earthquake Forecast in North East India and its Vicinity

Seismic data for 100 years (1918–2018) were analysed for probabilistic analysis in the forecast of probable future earthquakes above M_w ≥ 5.0 in North East India (20°–30°N and 86°–98°E) and its vicinity. The best distribution for seismic data allows probabilistic analysis to ascertain mean occurrence period E(t) for earthquakes of M_w ≥ 5.0. Here, Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics has been utilized constrained by Weibull distribution to achieve the best fit on the dataset. E(t) is found to be 74 days approximately with 50% probability. Similarly, cumulative probability function indicates a time period of 140 days with 80% probability, while 400–500 days of recurrence time period is embedded with 90–100% probability for an earthquake of M_w ≥ 5.0 to recur following the occurrence of the last earthquake.