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An infectious diseases hazard map for India based on mobility and transportation networks


Affiliations
1 Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411 008, India
 

We propose a risk measure and construct an infectious diseases hazard map for India. Given an outbreak location, a hazard index is assigned to each city using an effective distance that depends on inter-city mobilities instead of geographical distance. We demonstrate its utility using an SIR model augmented with air, rail and road data among the top 446 cities. Simulations show that the effective distance from outbreak location reliably predicts the time of arrival of infection in other cities. The hazard index predictions compare well with the observed spread of SARS-CoV-2. This hazard map can be used in other outbreaks as well.

Keywords

COVID-19, effective distance, hazard map, infectious diseases, transportation networks.
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  • Leaflet – map tiles by Stamen Design, under CC BY 3.0. Data by OpenStreetMap, under CC BY SA.


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  • An infectious diseases hazard map for India based on mobility and transportation networks

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Authors

Onkar Sadekar
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411 008, India
Mansi Budamagunta
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411 008, India
G. J. Sreejith
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411 008, India
Sachin Jain
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411 008, India
M. S. Santhanam
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411 008, India

Abstract


We propose a risk measure and construct an infectious diseases hazard map for India. Given an outbreak location, a hazard index is assigned to each city using an effective distance that depends on inter-city mobilities instead of geographical distance. We demonstrate its utility using an SIR model augmented with air, rail and road data among the top 446 cities. Simulations show that the effective distance from outbreak location reliably predicts the time of arrival of infection in other cities. The hazard index predictions compare well with the observed spread of SARS-CoV-2. This hazard map can be used in other outbreaks as well.

Keywords


COVID-19, effective distance, hazard map, infectious diseases, transportation networks.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv121%2Fi9%2F1208-1215