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An Optimal Vaccination Strategy for Pandemic Management and its Impact on Economic Recovery


Affiliations
1 School of Computing and Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi 175 005, India
2 School of Engineering and Technology, University of Washington, Tacoma 98402, United States
3 School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi 175 005, India
 

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for countries across the world. We propose a novel method for estimating reproduction number (R0) using community mobility to obtain optimal vaccination coverage (OVC). Different scenarios for achieving the desired immunization rates are evaluated using nonlinear regression models. The impact of recovery rates on mobility is also assessed to determine how the economy would have fared in various scenarios. Lockdowns due to COVID-19, which restricted mobility, were the main cause of the decline in GDP. For the city of Mumbai in India, with an increase in recovery rate from 1% to 5%, it was observed that mobility and thus economic activity might have been restored to some extent. The findings presented here may aid the governing bodies in developing more effective emergency response plans.

Keywords

Economic Recovery, Mobility, Nonlinear Regression, Pandemic Management, Reproduction Number, Vaccination Strategy.
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  • An Optimal Vaccination Strategy for Pandemic Management and its Impact on Economic Recovery

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Authors

Vansh Kodesia
School of Computing and Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi 175 005, India
Ankur Suri
School of Engineering and Technology, University of Washington, Tacoma 98402, United States
Sarita Azad
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi 175 005, India

Abstract


The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for countries across the world. We propose a novel method for estimating reproduction number (R0) using community mobility to obtain optimal vaccination coverage (OVC). Different scenarios for achieving the desired immunization rates are evaluated using nonlinear regression models. The impact of recovery rates on mobility is also assessed to determine how the economy would have fared in various scenarios. Lockdowns due to COVID-19, which restricted mobility, were the main cause of the decline in GDP. For the city of Mumbai in India, with an increase in recovery rate from 1% to 5%, it was observed that mobility and thus economic activity might have been restored to some extent. The findings presented here may aid the governing bodies in developing more effective emergency response plans.

Keywords


Economic Recovery, Mobility, Nonlinear Regression, Pandemic Management, Reproduction Number, Vaccination Strategy.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv124%2Fi3%2F319-326