Mortality Trends of Breast Cancer in BRICS Countries from 1990 to 2019: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) account for nearly half of the world’s population. We aimed to analyse mortality trends of breast cancer across the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019. Breast cancer mortality estimates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. An age–period–cohort model was adopted to estimate age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality between 1990 and 2019. Results showed that breast cancer caused 0.23 million deaths across the BRICS countries in 2019, accounting for 32.7% of the total death caused by breast cancer worldwide. China had the largest number of deaths, followed by India. All five BRICS countries showed positive percentage changes in deaths from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) in India, South Africa and China presented increased trends. South Africa presented the fastest increased rate with age. Downward period trends were observed in China, South Africa, Brazil and Russia, while an upward trend was seen in India, with the period rate ratio increasing from 0.95 to 1.17. In conclusion, the disease burden of breast cancer is still heavy across the BRICS countries. It is important to pay more attention to elderly patients. The increasing disease burden must be addressed multidimensionally, incorporating screening and early detection, timely and sufficient treatment and appropriate prevention.