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Predicting Potential Distribution, Range Change and Niche Dynamics for Saraca asoca (Roxb.) De Wilde: A Threatened Medicinal Plant under Climatic Change


Affiliations
1 Department of Botany, Maharaja Sriram Chandra Bhanja Deo University, Baripada 757 003, India
2 Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Royal Enclave, Srirampura, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
 

In the Anthropocene era, understanding the impact of climate change on niche shift, species distribution, and habitat change is increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity. In this respect, species distribution models have been considered an important tool over the last decade. The present study illustrates distributional change, niche dynamics and climatic shifts of Saraca asoca (Roxb.) De Wilde in India, a proven medicinal plant and a listed threatened species by IUCN, under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt. The robustness of the model was satisfactory (AUC = 0.936), indicating a good fit. There could be a significant gain in suitable habitat between the present and future scenarios, ranging from a minimum of 52,275.17 km2 (RCP 2.6) to a maximum of 95,994.62 km2 (RCP 4.5). In the future, the suitable habitat range would shift towards colder regions of India, where cultivation of S. asoca could be taken up, thus enabling effective management of the natural habitat and population of the species. This study will help understand the effects of climate change on S. asoca and its implications for conservation of the species.

Keywords

Climate Change, Distributional Changes, Ecological Niche Models, Niche Overlap, Saraca asoca.
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  • Predicting Potential Distribution, Range Change and Niche Dynamics for Saraca asoca (Roxb.) De Wilde: A Threatened Medicinal Plant under Climatic Change

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Authors

Monalisa Jena
Department of Botany, Maharaja Sriram Chandra Bhanja Deo University, Baripada 757 003, India
Manas Ranjan Mohanta
Department of Botany, Maharaja Sriram Chandra Bhanja Deo University, Baripada 757 003, India
Bipin Charles
Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Royal Enclave, Srirampura, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
N. A. Aravind
Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Royal Enclave, Srirampura, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
G. Ravikanth
Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Royal Enclave, Srirampura, Jakkur, Bengaluru 560 064, India
Sudam Charan Sahu
Department of Botany, Maharaja Sriram Chandra Bhanja Deo University, Baripada 757 003, India

Abstract


In the Anthropocene era, understanding the impact of climate change on niche shift, species distribution, and habitat change is increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity. In this respect, species distribution models have been considered an important tool over the last decade. The present study illustrates distributional change, niche dynamics and climatic shifts of Saraca asoca (Roxb.) De Wilde in India, a proven medicinal plant and a listed threatened species by IUCN, under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt. The robustness of the model was satisfactory (AUC = 0.936), indicating a good fit. There could be a significant gain in suitable habitat between the present and future scenarios, ranging from a minimum of 52,275.17 km2 (RCP 2.6) to a maximum of 95,994.62 km2 (RCP 4.5). In the future, the suitable habitat range would shift towards colder regions of India, where cultivation of S. asoca could be taken up, thus enabling effective management of the natural habitat and population of the species. This study will help understand the effects of climate change on S. asoca and its implications for conservation of the species.

Keywords


Climate Change, Distributional Changes, Ecological Niche Models, Niche Overlap, Saraca asoca.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv125%2Fi9%2F989-998