Impact of Climate Change on the Flowering of Rhododendron arboreum in Central Himalaya, India

Studies from different parts of the world have generated evidences of the effects of climate change on phenology and persistence of species. However, datasets or evidences are lacking for majority of the regions and species, including the climate-sensitive Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Recognizing this gap in the information and realizing wide-ranging implications of such datasets, the present study generates evidences of changes in flowering phenology of an important trees species, Rhododendron arboreum in Indian central Himalaya. Real-time field observations (2009- 2011) showed peak flowering during early February to mid-March. Analysis on long-term temperature data revealed significant (P < 0.01) increase in seasonal (winter and post-monsoon) and annual mean maximum temperature. Generalized additive model (GAM) using real-time field observations (2009-2011) and herbarium records (1893-2003) predicted 88-97 days early flowering over the last 100 years. Furthermore, GAM using long-term temperature data, real-time field observations and herbarium records depicted annual mean maximum temperature responsible for shifts in flowering dates of the target species. The study provides an important insight of species response to climate change in the Indian central Himalaya and highlights the need for further research on the subject to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on species and consequently on ecology of the region.