Rainfall Behaviour of Belval and Bhusawal Stations of Jalgaon District

Rainfall is one of the most important natural resources for human being in rainfed farming. The crop planning and it success depend upon amount and distribution of rainfall. The rainfall in Jalgaon district is very uncertain, most of the area under rainfed condition. The weekly rainfall data of 30 years (1976-2005) for Belval and Bhusawal stations was collected. The behavior of rainfall, occurrence of dry spell and critical dry spell was worked out by using initial and conditional probability methods. It can be inferred that the initial probabilities >20 mm varied between 60-70 per cent at Belval while at Bhusawal it was 75-80 per cent. The conditional probability (W/W) of both the stations varied between 80-90per cent. At >30mm rainfall initial probabilities varied between 50-60 per cent at both the stations and the conditional probability (W/W) varied between 60-70 per cent at Belval, while at Bhusawal it was in the range of 70-80 per cent. The conditional probability (W/D) varied in between 40-50per cent at Belval and Bhusawal. The dry spells were found 62 at Belval, and 44 at Bhusawal and the critical dry spells were 12 and 9 for Belval and Bhusawal respectively.