Rainfall Probability Analysis and Crop Planning for Chambal Region of Madhya Pradesh

Daily rainfall data of 29 years (1981-2009) recorded at RVSKVV, Zonal Agricultural Research Station Morena, Madhya Pradesh was examined for long term averages of annual, seasonal, monthly, and weekly rainfall and its temporal variability. Co-efficient of variation of 27.1 per cent indicated that the annual rainfall was more or less stable over the years. The season-wise per cent contribution of annual rainfall was 3.7, 7.9 and 88.4 per cent of summer, Rabi and Kharif seasons, respectively. With in the rainy season, August was the highest rainfall contributing month (33.4%) followed by July (28.9%) mean weakly, precipitation amount and its assurance reaches the peak (>50mm/week) during 26th SMW (Standard Meteorological Week) to 38th SMW and again declined thereafter. The earliest onset of rainy season occurred in 24th SMW. The normal onset of rainy season was observed as 26th SMW with CV of 5.8 per cent. There is an ample scope for rain water harvesting from July to September which can be utilized as crop saving irrigation as well as pre-sowing irrigation for succeeding Rabi crops which are generally sown on residual soil moisture