The Bearing on Indian Frugality and Predicting of Average Crude Oil Rates since 1991 – A Study

In the past few years, the crude oil industry has seen so much volatility in terms of crude oil prices in the international oil market. In this research paper, we explore many aspects of the overall crude oil industry and its impact on the Indian economy, it is crucial to have an idea about price movements in order to ascertain demand and supply of crude oil. In this research paper researchers focus on the Box- Jenkins approach along with normal regression model required used for forecasting crude oil prices and its significant impact on the Indian economy (GDP) since LPG reforms post 1991 through timeseries data available for the specific time period from 1991 to 2018. ARIMA model based on the Box-Jenkins approach is further evidence to check the feasibility of time series data and on the basis of that forecasting of the future trends of crude oil prices are shown. The historical crude oil prices predict future trends of crude oil prices and results on the basis of the proposed model are found to be very conclusive and genuine. Before applying the ARIMA model normality of data is assured followed by unit-ischolar_mains are checked to make residuals stationary at a desired level of significance in order to have significant forecasting through the ARIMA model used in this research.