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Simulation of Carbon Emission Scenario for New Town Based on Spatial Quantitative Analysis:A Case Study of Xishan Low Carbon Demonstration Region, China


Affiliations
1 School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410004, China
2 School of Architecture and Art, Central South University, Changsha 410004, China
3 School of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
 

New towns are the main source of CO2 emissions. Stabilizing emissions of new towns have become an important issue due to rapid urbanization. In view of this, a System Dynamics model called the New Town CO2 Emissions Model was developed to predict and assess the CO2 emissions of spatial planning schemes. Based on the Xishan low carbon demonstration region, we proposed three schemes, which correspond to different land use dynamic variation simulation patterns for the targets of maximum economic benefit, minimum emissions and lower ecological impacts. In addition, we analysed the sensitivity of carbon emissions by changing the parameters of the model. The seven sets of parameters used, represent the seven different planning scenarios. Finally, we simulated the CO2 dynamics data using the above model to compare the three schemes in terms of environmental impact, economic benefits and land use efficiency. The model can be used to predict and assess new town CO2 emissions for all of China and may be applied to other developing countries.

Keywords

Low-Carbon New Town, CO2 Emissions, STELLA Model, Scenario Simulation Model.
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  • Simulation of Carbon Emission Scenario for New Town Based on Spatial Quantitative Analysis:A Case Study of Xishan Low Carbon Demonstration Region, China

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Authors

Luyun Liu
School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410004, China
Bohong Zheng
School of Architecture and Art, Central South University, Changsha 410004, China
Jian Zheng
School of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China

Abstract


New towns are the main source of CO2 emissions. Stabilizing emissions of new towns have become an important issue due to rapid urbanization. In view of this, a System Dynamics model called the New Town CO2 Emissions Model was developed to predict and assess the CO2 emissions of spatial planning schemes. Based on the Xishan low carbon demonstration region, we proposed three schemes, which correspond to different land use dynamic variation simulation patterns for the targets of maximum economic benefit, minimum emissions and lower ecological impacts. In addition, we analysed the sensitivity of carbon emissions by changing the parameters of the model. The seven sets of parameters used, represent the seven different planning scenarios. Finally, we simulated the CO2 dynamics data using the above model to compare the three schemes in terms of environmental impact, economic benefits and land use efficiency. The model can be used to predict and assess new town CO2 emissions for all of China and may be applied to other developing countries.

Keywords


Low-Carbon New Town, CO2 Emissions, STELLA Model, Scenario Simulation Model.

References