Oriental Journal of Computer Science and Technology

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Simulating Civil Disorder:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach


Affiliations
1 School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University–Newark, NJ, United States
2 School of Information Technologyand Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing, China
 

This paper introduces a preliminary agent-based simulation model that seeks to analyze individual-level behaviors. The model is guided by theory and previous empirical studies on riot simulation. Data on the evolution of the contagion processamong assembled civilian agents is collected to better understand how the ratio of various civilian groups affectsriot development. Numerous variables including the severity of punishment in the form of increased jail sentences for activist civilian agents, the ratio of police to civilian agents, and various contagion thresholds among civilian agents are analyzed. Results from the simulation suggest among other thingsthat thegreaterthe density of activistcivilian agents attending public demonstrationsthe more powerful the contagion and the more quicklyapeaceful protest can be transformed into to a riotous mob. Additionally, increasing levels of guardianship in the form of policedecreases the likelihood of a riot occurring even when group emotions escalate.Limitations of the current model are discussed in addition to the findings, and the future direction of agent-based models on riot simulation.

Keywords

Civil Disorder, Contagion Theory, Agent-Based Modeling, Riot Simulation.
User
Notifications
Font Size

  • Cialdini, R. B. and Goldstein, N. J. Social influence: Compliance and conformity. Annu. Rev. Psychol., ; 55: 591-621, (2004).

  • Epstein, J. M. Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(3), 7243-7250, (2002).

  • Jager, W., Popping, R., and van de Sande, H. Clustering and fighting in two-party crowds: Simulating the approach-avoidance conflict. Jo. of Art. Soc. and Soc. Sim., 4(3): 1-18, (2001).

  • Goh, C. K., Quek, H. Y., Tan, K. C., & Abbass, H. A. . Modeling civil violence: An evolutionary multi-agent, game theoretic approach. In 2006 IEEE International Conference on Evolutionary Computation, 1624-1631, (2006).

  • Le Bon, G. The crowd: A study of the popular mind. Fischer, (1897).

  • Park R. E. The Crowd and the Public, and Other Essays, 1904.

  • Kermack, W.O. and McKendrick, A.G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. In Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: mathematical, physical and engineering sciences,115(772); 700-721, (1927).

  • Lempert, R. Agent-based modeling as organizational and public policy simulators. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(3): 7195-7196, (2002).

  • Quek, H. Y., Tan, K. C., and Abbass, H. A. Evolutionary game theoretic approach for modeling civil violence. IEEE trans. on evol.vomp.,13(4), 780-800, (2009).

  • Nekovee, M., Moreno, Y., Bianconi, G., and Marsili, M. Theory of rumour spreading in complex social networks. Physica A: Stat. Mech. and its Appl., 374(1), 457-470, (2007).

  • Björ, J., Knuttson, J., and Kühlhorn, E. The celebration of Midsummer Eve in Sweden: A study in the art of preventing collective disorder. Security Journal., 3(3), 169-174, (1992).

  • H Hylander, I. and Granström, K. Police use of active and passive mitigation strategies at crowd events, 220, (2011).

  • Bosse, T., Hoogendoorn, M., Klein, M. C., Treur, J., & Van Der Wal, C. N. Agent-based analysis of patterns in crowd behaviour involving contagion of mental states.Springer Berlin Heidelberg. In International Conference on Industrial, Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems, 566-577, (2011).


Abstract Views: 249

PDF Views: 0




  • Simulating Civil Disorder:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Abstract Views: 249  |  PDF Views: 0

Authors

Justin Kurland
School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University–Newark, NJ, United States
Peng Chen
School of Information Technologyand Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing, China

Abstract


This paper introduces a preliminary agent-based simulation model that seeks to analyze individual-level behaviors. The model is guided by theory and previous empirical studies on riot simulation. Data on the evolution of the contagion processamong assembled civilian agents is collected to better understand how the ratio of various civilian groups affectsriot development. Numerous variables including the severity of punishment in the form of increased jail sentences for activist civilian agents, the ratio of police to civilian agents, and various contagion thresholds among civilian agents are analyzed. Results from the simulation suggest among other thingsthat thegreaterthe density of activistcivilian agents attending public demonstrationsthe more powerful the contagion and the more quicklyapeaceful protest can be transformed into to a riotous mob. Additionally, increasing levels of guardianship in the form of policedecreases the likelihood of a riot occurring even when group emotions escalate.Limitations of the current model are discussed in addition to the findings, and the future direction of agent-based models on riot simulation.

Keywords


Civil Disorder, Contagion Theory, Agent-Based Modeling, Riot Simulation.

References