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Simulating Civil Disorder:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach


Affiliations
1 School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University–Newark, NJ, United States
2 School of Information Technologyand Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing, China
 

This paper introduces a preliminary agent-based simulation model that seeks to analyze individual-level behaviors. The model is guided by theory and previous empirical studies on riot simulation. Data on the evolution of the contagion processamong assembled civilian agents is collected to better understand how the ratio of various civilian groups affectsriot development. Numerous variables including the severity of punishment in the form of increased jail sentences for activist civilian agents, the ratio of police to civilian agents, and various contagion thresholds among civilian agents are analyzed. Results from the simulation suggest among other thingsthat thegreaterthe density of activistcivilian agents attending public demonstrationsthe more powerful the contagion and the more quicklyapeaceful protest can be transformed into to a riotous mob. Additionally, increasing levels of guardianship in the form of policedecreases the likelihood of a riot occurring even when group emotions escalate.Limitations of the current model are discussed in addition to the findings, and the future direction of agent-based models on riot simulation.

Keywords

Civil Disorder, Contagion Theory, Agent-Based Modeling, Riot Simulation.
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  • Simulating Civil Disorder:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

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Authors

Justin Kurland
School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University–Newark, NJ, United States
Peng Chen
School of Information Technologyand Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing, China

Abstract


This paper introduces a preliminary agent-based simulation model that seeks to analyze individual-level behaviors. The model is guided by theory and previous empirical studies on riot simulation. Data on the evolution of the contagion processamong assembled civilian agents is collected to better understand how the ratio of various civilian groups affectsriot development. Numerous variables including the severity of punishment in the form of increased jail sentences for activist civilian agents, the ratio of police to civilian agents, and various contagion thresholds among civilian agents are analyzed. Results from the simulation suggest among other thingsthat thegreaterthe density of activistcivilian agents attending public demonstrationsthe more powerful the contagion and the more quicklyapeaceful protest can be transformed into to a riotous mob. Additionally, increasing levels of guardianship in the form of policedecreases the likelihood of a riot occurring even when group emotions escalate.Limitations of the current model are discussed in addition to the findings, and the future direction of agent-based models on riot simulation.

Keywords


Civil Disorder, Contagion Theory, Agent-Based Modeling, Riot Simulation.

References