Objectives: To study the trends in growth of area, production and productivity of pulses over a period of time and to forecast the values for these variables.
Methodology: Adopted to study the first objective is to calculate the compound growth rates with the help of exponential growth model. For the second objective univariate time series analysis based on Box-Jenkins (BJ) approach which is popularly known as ARIMA process has been adopted to forecast the values for area, production and productivity of pulses. The present analysis is based on the annual time series data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) for the period 1966-67 to 2015-16.
Findings: The growth rate analysis indicated that during the study period there is positive and significant growth in area, production and productivity of pulses but relative growth in area is lower compared to that of production and yield. The empirical analysis based on ARIMA indicated that the specifications (i) AR (1), AR (2), MA (1) and MA (2) (ii) AR (1), AR (10), MA (1) and MA (12) (iii) AR (12) and MA (1) were best fitted models for forecasting area, production and productivity of total pulses in India respectively. The model adequacy criteria like correlogram of residuals, ischolar_main mean square errors, mean absolute percentage error, Theil’s inequality coefficient, normality and heteroskedasticity assumptions of residuals validated the results. Based on the selected ARIMA specifications projections for next five years starting from 2016-17 onwards have been made. The forecast results show the increasing trend in production and productivity of pulses but the area under pulse crops shows the growth of near stagnancy during forecast period.
Application: Inferences drawn from the results are firstly these projections help the policy makers and farmers in their decision making. Secondly, concerted efforts are required for effective implementation of government programmes to enhance the area under pulse crops which are influenced by multiplicity of factors and risks, to reduce the widening gap between supply of and demand for pulses in the future.