![Open Access](https://i-scholar.in/lib/pkp/templates/images/icons/fulltextgreen.png)
![Restricted Access](https://i-scholar.in/lib/pkp/templates/images/icons/fulltextred.png)
Forecasting of Wheat Production and Productivity of Ahmedabad Region of Gujarat State by Using ARIMA Models
Background: ARIMA models were carried out to explain the fluctuations in production and productivity for wheat crop in Ahmedabad. Data from the year 1960-61 to 2010-11 were used for model fitting and forecasting ten years ahead from the year 2010-11.
Method: The ARIMA models with different p,d and q were judged based on autocorrelation function and partial auto correlation function at various lags and different ARIMA models were fitted.
Result: Among different fitted ARIMA models, ARIMA (0,1,1) family model was found suitable to forecast the pattern of wheat production and productivity trend of Ahmedabad region of Gujarat State.
Application: Forecasted values showed an increasing pattern in production and productivity of wheat in Ahmedabad region and predicted values for production and productivity of wheat in the year 2020-21 are3113.14 thousand tons and 1757.41 kg/ha respectively.
Keywords
![](https://i-scholar.in/public/site/images/abstractview.png)
Abstract Views: 314
![](https://i-scholar.in/public/site/images/pdfview.png)
PDF Views: 199