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ROA on Gold Mines in ZA


Affiliations
1 Ph.D. Candidate - Option Pricing, Henley Business School, School of Real Estate and Planning, The University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UD, United Kingdom

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There are virtually no empirical studies in South Africa (ZA) on pricing gold mines using real option analysis (ROA) despite the fact that ZA has relatively good mining prospects across the board and now and then, the mines close and re-open. Therefore, until gold mines in ZA are evaluated using a technique that takes into account the flexibility of mines to close and re-open at later stages, quoted gold mines values are most likely to be subjective. In "extracting" extra value that is normally not captured by traditional valuations methods (TVMs), this empirical study shapes its concepts and principles around Moel and Tufano (2001). Although, Moel and Tufano's (2001) empirical study is North American based, but the real options concepts should be consistent as Moel and Tufano (2001) was based on large data set. Results illustrated that real options concepts have similar impact of South African gold mines as in other countries. Interestingly, interest rates changes have the biggest optionality impact than other real options parameters. In other empirical studies, interest rates changes had optionality impact, but not biggest causal effect.

Keywords

“Closing and Opening”, Gold Mines and Real Options

C10, G31 and G32

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  • ROA on Gold Mines in ZA

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Authors

Tumellano Sebehela
Ph.D. Candidate - Option Pricing, Henley Business School, School of Real Estate and Planning, The University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UD, United Kingdom

Abstract


There are virtually no empirical studies in South Africa (ZA) on pricing gold mines using real option analysis (ROA) despite the fact that ZA has relatively good mining prospects across the board and now and then, the mines close and re-open. Therefore, until gold mines in ZA are evaluated using a technique that takes into account the flexibility of mines to close and re-open at later stages, quoted gold mines values are most likely to be subjective. In "extracting" extra value that is normally not captured by traditional valuations methods (TVMs), this empirical study shapes its concepts and principles around Moel and Tufano (2001). Although, Moel and Tufano's (2001) empirical study is North American based, but the real options concepts should be consistent as Moel and Tufano (2001) was based on large data set. Results illustrated that real options concepts have similar impact of South African gold mines as in other countries. Interestingly, interest rates changes have the biggest optionality impact than other real options parameters. In other empirical studies, interest rates changes had optionality impact, but not biggest causal effect.

Keywords


“Closing and Opening”, Gold Mines and Real Options

C10, G31 and G32