Dynamics of Noise Traders’ Risk in the NSE and BSE Markets
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In Financial Economics, the "noise" and "noise traders" play critical roles in stocks' equilibrium pricing mechanism. It includes economic and non-economic aspects. The paper empirically explores the nature and magnitude of noise traders' risk in India during the present recovery phase. Besides the daily trading data, it utilizes intra-day 1D and 5D trade-prices, trade-volumes, and trade-times of the Nifty-Fifty firms listed both in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The study utilizes the NSE-Nifty and the BSE-Sensex indices for market return data. It examines whether stocks' return variations incorporate noise traders' risk or not and whether informed traders' short-run arbitrage forces them to long-short positioning for hedging or not.
The study argues that noise has systematic and firm-specific components those vary over time. These components include idiosyncratic and noise aspects. At lag-periods, traders' longshort positions over these markets can hedge fundamental systematic and fundamental firm-specific shocks and may detach noise shocks. Once stocks are traded at long - short horizons, traders' long-short returns expose the noise aspects across stocks The study also compares the results for the current price-volume-trade time data with those of two years earlier. The findings suggest that intra-day returns from 1D and 5D data impound significant noise while daily (weekly) returns show its high (moderate) exposures. The conditional volatilities of long-short returns in the GARCH models show that the time-varying idiosyncratic noise is highly persistent at presence of noise traders. The study confirms that stocks' prices impound information and noise during the trading days.
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