Cocoa Products Exports of India:A Markov Chain Analysis

After introduction of cocoa in early half of 20th century, it gained momentum in late l990s only. Though the growth rates in area, production, export quantity and value were heartening, the actual situation of Indian export sector of cocoa products was disheartening. The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian cocoa products exports. Data for analysis was taken for a period of 16 years from 2000-01 to 2016-17. The Markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major cocoa markets. The major Indian cocoa export markets were categorized as stable market (USA, China, & others) and unstable markets (Singapore, Netherland) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The major export markets for Indian cocoas were USA (14.9%), Nepal(11.6%),China(7.71%), Netherland (6.94%)and Singapore (5.06%). The holistic conclusion leads to the need of emphasizing on productivity enhancing research, measures to stabilize existing markets and tapping other markets section for improvement in this sector.