International Journal of Education and Management Studies

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Structural Changes in India's Trade of Pulses:A Markov Approach


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1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, India
     

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To access the growth and structural changes taking place in pulses area, production, productivity and trade aspects this analysis was carried out for a period of 10 years ranging from 2007-08 to 2016-17. It was done by calculating compound and simple growth statistics and by developing separate transitional matrix for exports and imports. Results regarding area, production, productivity, collective quantity and value of exports exhibited 1.88 percent, 3.63 percent, 1.71 percent,5.45 percent and 3.23 percent rate of compound growth rate respectively. Markov Chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major pulses export markets of Indian pulses and nations importing pulses to India. The major Indian pulses export markets were categorized as stable market (UAE) and unstable markets (Pakistan & Saudi Arab) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The import transition matrix also brought forward Canada and Myanmar as most trusted and Australia & USA as most unstable suppliers of Indian pulses imports. In conclusion, the growth in production (3.63 %) of the world's largest producer was far behind the simultaneous growth in import quantity (17.12%).

Keywords

Markov, Pulses, Export Direction, Structural Change.
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  • Structural Changes in India's Trade of Pulses:A Markov Approach

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Authors

Sanjay
Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, India
H. M. Swamy
Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, India
Sunita Yadav
Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, India
Krishan Yadav
Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, India

Abstract


To access the growth and structural changes taking place in pulses area, production, productivity and trade aspects this analysis was carried out for a period of 10 years ranging from 2007-08 to 2016-17. It was done by calculating compound and simple growth statistics and by developing separate transitional matrix for exports and imports. Results regarding area, production, productivity, collective quantity and value of exports exhibited 1.88 percent, 3.63 percent, 1.71 percent,5.45 percent and 3.23 percent rate of compound growth rate respectively. Markov Chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major pulses export markets of Indian pulses and nations importing pulses to India. The major Indian pulses export markets were categorized as stable market (UAE) and unstable markets (Pakistan & Saudi Arab) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The import transition matrix also brought forward Canada and Myanmar as most trusted and Australia & USA as most unstable suppliers of Indian pulses imports. In conclusion, the growth in production (3.63 %) of the world's largest producer was far behind the simultaneous growth in import quantity (17.12%).

Keywords


Markov, Pulses, Export Direction, Structural Change.

References