Open Access
Subscription Access
Open Access
Subscription Access
The Determinants of Country Risk Analysis
Subscribe/Renew Journal
The paper examines the effect of various economic and political factors on country risk ratings published by Euromoney and Institutional Investor. As global competition drives corporations, managers frequently rely on country risk analysis as a crucial aspect of strategic decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which country risk measures can help in predicting country ratings. We examine seven widely used measures of country risk across sixty-one countries. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that country risk ratings can be replicated to a significant degree with a few available political and economic indicators. Political risk was found to exert a significant influence on country ratings. The results also confirmed that both Euromoney and Institutional ratings predicted similar outcomes.
Keywords
Country Risk Analysis, Gross National Product, Gross Capital Formation
User
Information
- Aliber, R.Z. (1980), A Conceptual Approach to the Analysis of External Debt of Developing Countries, World Bank Staff Working paper no. 421, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
- Brewer, T. and P. Rivoli (1990), Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 22 (August 1990): 357-369.
- Burton, F. and H. Inoue (1985), An Appraisal of the Early Warning Indicators of Sovereign Loan Default in Country Risk Evaluation System, Management International Review 25: 45-56.
- Burton, F.N (1987), A country Risk Appraisal Model of Foreign Asset Expropriation in Developing Countries, Applied Economics 19(8): 1009-1048.
- Citron, J T and G Nicklesburg(1987), Country Risk and Political Instability, Journal of Development Economics 25 (April): 385-392.
- Cosset, J.C. and J. Roy (1991), The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings, Journal of International Business Studies 22 (First Quarter): 135-142.
- Cosset, J., Daouas, M., Kettani, O. and Oral, M. (1993), Replicating Country Risk Rating, Journal of Multinational Financial Management Vol. 3.
- Eaton, J. and M. Gersovitz, and J. Stiglitz (1986), The Pure Theory of Country Risk, European Economic Review 30: 481-513.
- Erbs, C.B., Campbell, R.H. and Viskanta, T.E (1996), Political Risk, Economic Risk and Financial Risk, Financial Analysts Journal 52 (Nov./Dec): 28-46.
- Feder, G. and R. Just (1977), A Study of Debt Servicing Capacity Applying Logit Analysis, Journal of Development Economics 4: 25- 38.
- Feder, G.R. Just and K. Ross (1981), Projecting Debt-Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 16 (December): 651-669.
- Feder, G. and K. Ross (1982), Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Euro-Dollar Market, The Journal of Finance 37 (June): 670-691.
- Feder, G. and L. Uy (1985), The Determinants of International Creditworthiness and their Policy Implications, Journal of Policy Modeling 7: 133-156.
- Frank, C. and W. Cline (1971), Measurement of Debt Servicing Capacity: An Application of Discriminant Analysis, Journal of International Economics 1: 327-344.
- Kaminsky, G. and Schmukler, S (2001), Emerging Markets Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?, World Bank, February 28, 2001, Accessed Online.
- Oetzel, Jennifer M., Bettis, Richard A. (2001), Country Risk Measures: How risky are They ?, Journal of World Business 36(2).
- Saini, K.G. and P.S. Bates (1984), A Survey of the Quantitative Approaches to Country Risk Analysis, Journal of Banking and Finance 8: 341-356.
Abstract Views: 402
PDF Views: 1