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Probabilistic Analysis of Seismic Data for Earthquake Forecast in North East India and its Vicinity


Affiliations
1 Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, and CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India
2 CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India
 

Seismic data for 100 years (1918–2018) were analysed for probabilistic analysis in the forecast of probable future earthquakes above Mw ≥ 5.0 in North East India (20°–30°N and 86°–98°E) and its vicinity. The best distribution for seismic data allows probabilistic analysis to ascertain mean occurrence period E(t) for earthquakes of Mw ≥ 5.0. Here, Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics has been utilized constrained by Weibull distribution to achieve the best fit on the dataset. E(t) is found to be 74 days approximately with 50% probability. Similarly, cumulative probability function indicates a time period of 140 days with 80% probability, while 400–500 days of recurrence time period is embedded with 90–100% probability for an earthquake of Mw ≥ 5.0 to recur following the occurrence of the last earthquake.

Keywords

Cumulative Probability Function, Earthquake Forecast, Probabilistic Analysis, Seismic Risk.
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  • Probabilistic Analysis of Seismic Data for Earthquake Forecast in North East India and its Vicinity

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Authors

Timangshu Chetia
Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, and CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India
Saurabh Baruah
CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India
Chandan Dey
Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, and CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India
Sangeeta Sharma
CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India
Santanu Baruah
CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat 785 006, India

Abstract


Seismic data for 100 years (1918–2018) were analysed for probabilistic analysis in the forecast of probable future earthquakes above Mw ≥ 5.0 in North East India (20°–30°N and 86°–98°E) and its vicinity. The best distribution for seismic data allows probabilistic analysis to ascertain mean occurrence period E(t) for earthquakes of Mw ≥ 5.0. Here, Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics has been utilized constrained by Weibull distribution to achieve the best fit on the dataset. E(t) is found to be 74 days approximately with 50% probability. Similarly, cumulative probability function indicates a time period of 140 days with 80% probability, while 400–500 days of recurrence time period is embedded with 90–100% probability for an earthquake of Mw ≥ 5.0 to recur following the occurrence of the last earthquake.

Keywords


Cumulative Probability Function, Earthquake Forecast, Probabilistic Analysis, Seismic Risk.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv117%2Fi7%2F1167-1173