Unprecedented Drought in North East India Compared to Western India

The rainfall distribution over Western and North East India during the southwest (SW) monsoon season is geographically distinct with the heaviest seasonal rainfall occurs over the North Eastern Region (NER), while the lowest rainfall occurs over the Western region (Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat, and also in Rajasthan). Gujarat is located in arid to semiarid region and has more drought-prone areas. In contrast, Assam and Meghalaya have humid climate and occurrence of drought is unusual. Here, we analyse the percentage departure of rainfall for nearly two decades (1997-2014) along with crop statistics. Our results indicate that the SW monsoon rainfall in the NER has gradually dropped in recent years compared to the 1980s and 1990s. As a result, these regions have witnessed frequent unprecedented drought than Western India. In NER, probability of drought occurrence was 54%, and it is 27% for Western India in the recent decade (2000-2014). The frequent drought has caused adverse agricultural impacts and our results show a significant negative rice production anomaly during drought years 2005-06 and 2009 in Assam. Drought impacts were also reported from other states in NER during 2010-11 and 2013. Drought associated with El Niño was not so strong; however, increasing temperature and increased monsoon season rainfall variability have an impact on global climate change. This may cause warming-induced drought leading to adverse impact on agriculture and food security in the NER.