International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Systems

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Time Series forecasting of Arrival Tourists in Southwest Algeria: Case Study of Bechar.


Affiliations
1 Bechar University B. P. 417,08000 Bechar., Algeria
     

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The aim of this work is to discuss and find the best and appropriate modeling of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and uses it as an element of forecasting of the number of arrival tourists to Bechar as a tourists destination in Algeria by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting arrival tourists is ARIMA(1,0,1)×(2,1,2)4 with a constant.

Keywords

Tourism, Time Series, Sarima, Box-jenkins, Forecasting And Algeria
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  • Boudi Abdel Kader. (2006). "The importance of marketing tourism in the development of tourism in Algeria" PhD theses, University of Algeria.

  • Naill, P. E. & Momani, M. (2009). "Time Series Analysis Model for Rainfall Data in Jordan:Case Study for Using Time Series Analysis", American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 5 (5), 599-604.

  • Rangsan Nochai & Titida Nochai. (2006). "ARIMA Model For Forecasting Oil Palm Price", Proceedings of the 2nd IMT-GT Regional conference on Mathematics, Statistics and Applications University Sains Malysia, Penang, June 13-15.

  • Robert H. Shumwa & David S. Stoffer, "Time Series Analysis and Its Applications With R Examples", Second Edition, pp.84-154.


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  • Time Series forecasting of Arrival Tourists in Southwest Algeria: Case Study of Bechar.

Abstract Views: 319  |  PDF Views: 0

Authors

Abdel Kader Boudi
Bechar University B. P. 417,08000 Bechar., Algeria
Zouaoui Chikr-ElMezouar
Bechar University B. P. 417,08000 Bechar., Algeria

Abstract


The aim of this work is to discuss and find the best and appropriate modeling of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and uses it as an element of forecasting of the number of arrival tourists to Bechar as a tourists destination in Algeria by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting arrival tourists is ARIMA(1,0,1)×(2,1,2)4 with a constant.

Keywords


Tourism, Time Series, Sarima, Box-jenkins, Forecasting And Algeria

References