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Can Mutual Fund Predict the Future? An Empirical Study


Affiliations
1 Department of Commerce, Rabindra Mahavidyalaya, Champadanga, Hooghly, West Bengal., India
2 Department of Commerce, The University of Burdwan, Burdwan, West Bengal., India
     

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The present study seeks to examine the NAV performance of the selected open-ended mutual fund schemes in India. The study also investigates whether the past return performance of the mutual funds may be used as a reliable indicator to predict the future return. To accomplish these objectives, closing monthly NAV data on 56 open-ended income schemes are considered over a period from January 2001 to December 2009. Then, we compute the average NAV and found a good consistency in performance. With a view to examine the consistency in return performance of the selected mutual fund schemes, auto-regressive model is applied and observed that only 34 schemes out of 56 openended income schemes have consistently influenced the return performance.

Keywords

Mutual Fund, Performance Evaluation, NAV, Open-ended, Auto-correlation
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  • Can Mutual Fund Predict the Future? An Empirical Study

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Authors

Subrata Roy
Department of Commerce, Rabindra Mahavidyalaya, Champadanga, Hooghly, West Bengal., India
Shantanu Kumar Ghosh
Department of Commerce, The University of Burdwan, Burdwan, West Bengal., India

Abstract


The present study seeks to examine the NAV performance of the selected open-ended mutual fund schemes in India. The study also investigates whether the past return performance of the mutual funds may be used as a reliable indicator to predict the future return. To accomplish these objectives, closing monthly NAV data on 56 open-ended income schemes are considered over a period from January 2001 to December 2009. Then, we compute the average NAV and found a good consistency in performance. With a view to examine the consistency in return performance of the selected mutual fund schemes, auto-regressive model is applied and observed that only 34 schemes out of 56 openended income schemes have consistently influenced the return performance.

Keywords


Mutual Fund, Performance Evaluation, NAV, Open-ended, Auto-correlation

References